000 AXNT20 KNHC 191824 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Corrected Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean sections Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic with its axis extending from near 15N20W to 06N21W moving westward 15-20 kt. The wave remains embedded in a deep pool of moisture as seen in the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery (TPW), and in the latest CIRA low-mid level moisture imagery. The 700 mb streamline guidance from the GFS indicates a well-defined 700 mb broad trough in the vicinity of the wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is east of the wave to the coast of Africa from 08N- 13N. A large central Atlantic tropical wave with its axis extending from near 22N41W to 15N43W to low pressure of 1012 mb on the wave axis at 11.5N44W to 05N45W. This system is moving in a general westward to west-northwestward direction at about 12 kt. The wave continues to exhibit a very large envelop of cyclonic rotation as observed in the low cloud motion. Latest satellite imagery shows that there has been some increase in deep level moisture with this system during the past several hours. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N-12N between 44W-47W, and within 30 nm of line from 16N40W to 17N41W. According to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it maintains its current motion. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has been introduced to 12 UTC surface analysis. This wave denotes the remnants of recent Tropical Storm Don. The wave is analyzed from near 16N66W to a 1012 mb low to just north of Isla Margarita. The wave and low are moving westward at 20-25 kt. Both Total Precipitable Water imagery and satellite imagery depict the wave and low to be within an area of very deep moisture south of 15N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave and low. To the north of 15N, the atmosphere is very dry under a Saharan Air Layer that has migrated westward over the eastern Caribbean in the wake of the following wave described below. The low pressure is forecast to dissipate in about 24 hours, while the wave will continue through the rest of eastern Caribbean through this evening, and the central Caribbean on Thursday. Fresh to strong east winds will follow in the wake of the wave. A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean along 72W southward to inland Venezuela at It is moving westward at about 20 kt. Similarly to the wave located to its east discussed above, this wave is embedded within an area of very deep moisture south of 15N, and is under Saharan Air Layer and dust north of 15N. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated convection moving quickly to the west behind the wave, and consists of the scattered moderate to isolated type intensity activity from 12N-14N between 66W and the wave. This activity has the capability to produce strong gusty winds and very rainfall. The visible imagery denotes the leading edge of the convection as outflow boundaries racing westward along the wave axis south of 15N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N16W to 07N25W to 12N41W to 09N48W. The ITCZ then extends from 09N48W to 06N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough axis between 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... In the upper levels, an upper level low lifting northward is centered over Mexico near 23N98W. Upper level diffluence to the southeast of the low is supporting scattered moderate convection over the far western Gulf from 21N-24N west of 94W. This activity will remain active through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. A mid/upper trough just inland the north and northeast Gulf is helping to support scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N between 86W and 91W. At the surface, the Yucatan Peninsula thermal trough pushed westward to the central Bay of Campeche last night, and extends from 21N93W to inland Mexico at 18N94W at 12 UTC. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 180 nm either side of the trough. Elsewhere, a 1019 mb high center is over the central Gulf at 26N88W. This feature remains in control of the wind regime throughout, with the associated gradient providing mainly gentle anticyclonic flow throughout. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature of concern over the southeastern Caribbean is the remnants of Don as discussed above. Scattered moderate to isolated trong convection is inland over SE Venezuela, and over N Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean will remain quite active through Friday due to the combination of an upper level low near 19N82W and instability associated with the monsoon trough axis across Costa Rica and Panama. ...HISPANIOLA... A fast moving tropical wave is moving across the central portion of the island. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over the interior of the island. Some increase of this activity may occur during the remainder of the afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As typical for this time of year, tropical waves are moving through the tropical Atlantic waters. Of note in the upper levels, the combination between a mid/upper level trough over the southeastern United States and an upper level low near 28N69W in combination with ample moisture and instability over the western portions is resulting numerous showers and thunderstorms over the northwest portion of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 66W. Very stable conditions under an extensive outbreak of Saharan Air is present to the east of 66W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre