000 AXNT20 KNHC 191033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa with axis from 15N19W to 06N20W moving W at 20kt. SSMI imagery shows a moist area from 04N-15N between 12W-24W. There is also a well defined 700 mb trough associated with the wave. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 15W-26W. A tropical wave with an embedded low pressure is in the central Atlantic. The axis extends from 18N41W to a 1011 mb low near 12N41W to 04N42W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The SSMI total precipitable water imagery shows a very large moist area over from 02N-24N between 33W-46W. The embedded surface low is well defined. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 09N-16N between 39W-46W. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves toward the west- northwest. Potential for tropical cyclone development from this system remains low through the next two days. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 20N69W to inland Venezuela near 10N70W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear, and Saharan dry air and dust are affecting the western periphery of the wave environment. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N16W to 07N25W to 12N41W to 09N48W. The ITCZ then extends from 09N48W to 06N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 23W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N90W to 16N92W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. Further W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from 14N-21N between 93W- 97W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has weak surface ridging 5-10 kt southerly flow. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the Straits of Florida, Florida, and the N Gulf N of 25N. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over Mexico near 23N98W. Upper level diffluence SE of the center is enhancing convection over S Mexico. Expect in 24 hours for a 1019 mb high to form over the NE Gulf near 28N87W. Also expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to form over Florida, and the Bay of Campeche, during maximum heating today. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature of concern for the SE Caribbean is the remnants of Don moving across the Windward Islands, and a tropical wave along 69W. Remnants of Don on 19/0900 UTC is centered near the island of La Blanquilla at 12N64W, moving westward at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Scattered moderate convection is over the Windward Islands from 11N-13N between 63W- 68W. The remnants of Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. There remains a potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, along the coast of Venezuela. In addition, scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over SE Venezuela, and over N Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean from 16N-21N between 79W-85W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over E Cuba near 19N75W. Expect additional convection over the S Caribbean and Central America over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... A fast moving tropical wave is supporting isolated showers across the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. The wave will traverse the island today. Expect scattered thunderstorms over the island during maximum heating today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas and the W Atlantic, N of 25N and W of 73W. A large 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N57W producing fair weather. As typical for this time of year, tropical waves are moving through the tropical Atlantic waters. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level high is over the W Atlantic near 33N66W producing upper level diffluence over Florida. An upper level low is also centered over the W Atlantic near 25N49W enhancing showers NW of center. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa