000 AXNT20 KNHC 171031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure is centered near 10.5N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm northwest semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development of this system and there is a medium chance that the low will develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information on this low. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 20N32W to 03N33W. The wave is moving westward about 10-15 kt. The axis of a tropical wave is near 19N53W to 04N54W. The wave is moving westward near 15 kt. The axis of a tropical wave is near 24N81W to 06N81W. The wave is moving westward near 15 kt. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 09N37W to low pres near 10.5N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N49W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 30 nm north and 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 35W and 45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm northwest semicircle of the low. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result benign marine conditions prevail over the area. Winds are generally in the light to gentle range with seas of 1-2 ft. High pressure will build across the region early this week and prevail through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving through the western Caribbean, helping enhance convection over this area. A weak pressure pattern prevails over the forecast area producing moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern and central Caribbean, and light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean. High pressure will build north of the area early this week, which will tighten the pressure gradient and bring an increase to the tradewinds across the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Active diurnal convection has dissipated over the island. Expect another round of afternoon thunderstorms to develop and last into the early evening hours today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Central Atlantic high pressure centered near 35N39W extends a ridge westward to the southeast United States. As typical for this time of year, tropical waves are moving through the tropical Atlantic waters. Low pressure has developed within the monsoon trough near 10.5N48W. Active convection associated to this low is noted within 90 nm northwest semicircle of the low as noted in the ITCZ/ monsoon trough section. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AL