000 AXNT20 KNHC 092324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 724 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far east Atlantic with axis extending from 16N22W to 06N23W, moving west at 15 kt. Abundant moisture prevails within this wave, as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is along the southern portion of the wave axis, where it intersects the monsoon trough, from 09N-12N between 21W- 27W. Another tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 20N33W to 05N34W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave's axis is the leading edge of a moisture surge that prevails east of 33W. The Meteosat 9 imagery depicts an extensive area of African Saharan dry air and dust to the west of the wave. Isolated moderate convection remains limited to the far southern extent of the wave's axis, where it intersects with the monsoon trough, from 04N-08N between 33W-40W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with its axis extending from 23N62W to 13N66W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the northern portions of the wave axis from 20N-23N between 59W-68W. This convection is forecast to move west to Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas over the next 48 hours. Presently 20-25 kt winds are noted over the northern portions of this wave, outside of convection. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending from 22N81W to 11N81W, moving west at 10 kt. The latest water vapor imagery shows subsidence and associated dry air over the central portions of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is over the northern portion over Cuba, and similar convection is over the southern portion near Costa Rica. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 09N23W to 07N34W to 07N45W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N45W to 06N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of South America from 04N-08N between 53W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz producing scattered moderate convection over the W Gulf of Mexico from 18N-25N between 94W-98W. A 1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N86W with only 5 kt anticyclonic winds. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over W Cuba. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida, Florida, and the other N Gulf States from N Florida to Texas. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the W Gulf of Mexico near 23N95W. A small upper level low is centered over the SE Gulf near 23N85W. Expect convection to persist over the SW Gulf for the next 24 hours. Also expect the more convection over the NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean. See above. In addition, scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba, and E Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is also over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, and S Nicaragua. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Caribbean near 19N80W. Expect the two tropical waves to move W over the next 24 hours with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered moderate convection is over E Hispaniola due to a tropical wave. Expect Hispaniola to have more convection and showers over the next 24 hours due to this tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic. See the section above for details. A broad 1032 mb surface high is centered north of our area near 37N40W with fair weather. An extensive area of African Saharan dust is situated over the central Atlantic and is gradually shifting westward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa