000 AXNT20 KNHC 082345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa with axis extending from 15N15W to 06N16W, moving W at 15 kt. Abundant moisture prevails within this wave, as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is mostly W of the wave axis from 10N-16N between 15W-21W. Another tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 18N25W to 07N30W, moving W at 10 kt. Atmospheric moisture continues to increase along and to the east of the wave. The Meteosat 9 imagery depicts an extensive area of African Saharan dry air and dust to its west. Convection remains limited to across the far southern extent of the wave's axis, where it intersects the monsoon trough. A tropical wave, remnants of Tropical Depression Four, is over the central Atlantic with its axis extending from 23N57W to 11N59W, moving west-northwest around 15-20 kt. The atmospheric environment surrounding the wave is very moist as observed in TPW loop series. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N-23N between 56W-60W. The active portion of the wave is forecast to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands by Sunday evening with possible brief gusty winds and squalls. It is later forecast to approach the SE Bahamas on Monday. A tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea with axis extending from 23N72W to 10N73W, moving W at 10 kt. The latest water vapor imagery shows subsidence and associated dry air over and around the wave's environment, which is inhibiting convection at this time, except, scattered showers are noted over Hispaniola. A tropical wave extends from the Bay of Campeche to S Mexico to the EPAC from 23N95W to 07N97W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the Gulf of Mexico from 19N-23N between 94W-98W. More convection is over the Pacific waters. The wave is forecast to move completely over inland Mexico tonight. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 11N15W to 09N24W to 07N39W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N39W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves over the far eastern Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is from 06N- 10N between 24W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico producing scattered moderate convection. See above. 20-25 kt winds are associated with this wave. A 1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N86W with only 5 kt anticyclonic winds. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over W Cuba. Isolated moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida, Florida, and the other N Gulf States to Texas. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the W Gulf of Mexico near 23N95W. A small upper level low is centered over the SE Gulf near 25N85W. Expect the tropical wave to move W over the next 24 hours with convection. Also expect the surface high to dissipate over the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. See above. Scattered moderate convection is over W Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, and S Nicaragua. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the central Caribbean near 16N77W. Expect the central Caribbean tropical wave to move W over the next 24 hours with convection. Also expect convection over the northern Leeward Islands due to another tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Depression Four, within the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to a tropical wave. Expect Hispaniola to have more scattered showers over the next 24 hours due to this tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic. See above. Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. A broad 1030 mb surface high is centered north of our area near 36N38W producing fair weather. An extensive area of African Saharan dust is situated over the eastern and central Atlantic E of 53W, and is gradually shifting westward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa