000 AXNT20 KNHC 011746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 146 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Meteo-France Gale Warning... Gale-force N to NE winds will continue today over the areas of AGADIR. These conditions will weaken by 02/1200 UTC. For more details, please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas Forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A stronger pressure gradient over the south central Caribbean is supporting strong to near-gale force winds with frequent gale- force gusts from 11.5N to 13.5N between 73W and 77W. These conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. For more details, please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending just off the coast of west Africa from 14N18W to 04N15W, moving west around 10 kt. TPW satellite imagery shows this wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Initial model 700 mb wind fields indicate a well defined trough coincides with this wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is affecting the area from 06N to 13N between 14W and 20W. A tropical wave over the east Atlantic has an axis extending from 13N27W to 05N31W, moving west around 10 kt. The wave is in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air according to TPW satellite imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment. Despite this, moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 30W and 34W. A tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic just to the east of the Lesser Antilles has an axis extending from 14N58W to 05N60W, moving west around 20 kt. The wave is also embedded in a moist environment. Satellite imagery also shows the presence of Saharan dry air to the east and west of the wave. This environmental setup suggests that convection associated with this wave will be capable of producing strong wind gusts. Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh winds in the vicinity of this wave between 50W and 60W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 14N between 55W and 59W. A tropical wave over the west Caribbean with axis extending from 18N81W to 07N84W, moving west around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery shows abundant moisture associated with this wave which supports scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 09N to 18N between 83W and 87W. Scatterometer data depicts a region of fresh to strong winds in association to this wave affecting the waters between 73W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 19N16W to 14N18W to 11N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N31W to 06N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 08N between 21W and 26W and also from 04N to 07N between 34W and 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 28N86W. Satellite-derived wind data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds over the NE Gulf and moderate to fresh winds over the SW Gulf. A weak surface trough cuts across the NE corner of the Gulf from 26N83W to 29N83W. Little change in the current synoptic pattern is expected during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary player over the basin continues to be a tropical wave currently entering central America from the far western Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves section for further details. A strong pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge extending W across the Atlantic along 30N and lower pressures associated with the wave and the monsoon trough extending eastward over Colombia from the eastern Pacific support fresh to strong winds from 11N to 17N between 67W and 79W. These winds are forecast to continue during the next couple of days. Frequent gusts to gale force along the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela will continue until 12Z Sunday, then these winds will abate to near gale force as the high pressure ridge to the north weakens slightly. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details regarding this event. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level trough extending southward from the SE Bahamas through the Windward Passage trough will interact with abundant moisture pooling to the SE over the island to trigger daytime scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain on the island through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves were analyzed over the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough over the central Atlantic curving from 14N41W to 20N44W to 26N42W and another smaller trough extending from 25N65W to 28N64W possess no significant convection. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered just northeast of the Azores near 41N24W. Generally moderate trades will continue around the southern periphery of this high over the Atlantic from 10N and 25N between 30W and 50W through the next 24-48 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy