000 AXNT20 KNHC 011037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 637 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Meteo-France Gale Warning... Gale-force north to northeast winds will continue today over the areas of AGADIR, CASABLANCA, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. These conditions will weaken by 02/0000 UTC. For more details, please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient is becoming stronger this morning across the south-central Caribbean supporting strong to near-gale force winds with frequent gale-force gusts from 11.5N to 13.5N between 73W and 77W. These conditions will begin at 01/1200 UTC and will continue through the next 24 hours. Fore more details, please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across west Africa from 16N15W to 06N15W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection accompanies this wave affecting the area from 07N-16N and east of 19W. A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from 13N28W to 05N29W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment. Despite this, isolated showers are observed from 06N-13N between 26W-34W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 14N55W to 05N58W, moving west at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is also in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment. Isolated showers are developing along the wave's axis between 10N-13N. A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean with axis extending from 19N78W to 09N82W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant moisture associated with this wave that is supports scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of the wave's axis between 80W-87W. Scatterometer data depicts a region of fresh to strong winds in association to this wave affecting the waters between 73W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 14N17W and continues to 11N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone begins near 07N32W to 02N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is observed within 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 28N87W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across most of the basin except northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula south of 23N between 89W-93W, where moderate to fresh winds were reported. These winds are related to the thermal surface trough that extends from 24N91W to 20N92W. Little change in the current synoptic pattern is expected during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature in the basin continues to be a tropical wave currently extending across the west Caribbean. See the section above for further details. A strong pressure gradient between high pressure extending from the Atlantic into the northern Caribbean and lower pressures associated with the wave support fresh to strong winds from 12N to 17N between 80W and 85W. These winds are forecast to continue over the weekend, increasing to near-gale along the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about this event. An upper-level short-wave trough and the abundant moisture associated with the passage of the tropical wave will continue to support convection over the western Caribbean through today. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level short-wave trough and abundant moisture associated with the passage of a tropical wave support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island through today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves were analyzed over the basin. Another tropical wave is about to come off from Africa. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough extends from 28N39W to 16N42W with no significant convection. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered just northeast of the Azores near 41N23W. Generally moderate trades will continue around the southern periphery of this high over the Atlantic from 10N and 25N between 30W and 60W through the next 24-48 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA