000 AXNT20 KNHC 010539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force north to northeast winds will continue today over the areas of AGADIR, CASABLANCA, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. These conditions will weaken by 02/0000 UTC. For more details, please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas Forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across west Africa from 16N12W to 06N14W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection accompanies this wave affecting the area from 08N-16N and east of 17W. A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from 13N27W to 04N28W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment. Despite this, isolated showers are observed along the waves axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 14N55W to 05N56W, moving west at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is also in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment. No significant convection is observed within this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean with axis extending from 18N77W to 08N81W, moving west at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. The CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant moisture associated with this wave that is supports scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of the wave's axis between 80W-85W. Scatterometer data depicts a region of fresh to strong winds in association to this wave affecting the waters between 73W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 14N17W and continues SW to 08N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone begins near 08N33W to 05N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is observed within 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 29N85W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across most of the basin except northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula south of 23N between 89W-93W, where moderate to fresh winds were reported. Little change in the current synoptic pattern is expected during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature in the basin continues to be a tropical wave currently extending across the west Caribbean. See the section above for further details. A strong pressure gradient between high pressure extending from the Atlantic into the northern Caribbean and lower pressures associated with the wave support fresh to strong winds from 12N to 17N between 80W and 85W. These winds are forecast to continue over the weekend, increasing to near-gale along the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. An upper-level short-wave trough and the abundant moisture associated with the passage of the tropical wave will continue to support convection over the western Caribbean through today. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level short-wave trough and abundant moisture associated with the passage of a tropical wave support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island through today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves were analyzed over the basin. Another tropical wave is about to come off from Africa. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough extends from 27N39W to 12N41W with no significant convection. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered just NE of the Azores near 42N24W. Generally moderate trades will continue around the southern periphery of this high over the Atlantic from 10N and 25N between 30W and 60W through the next 24-48 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA