000 AXNT20 KNHC 270532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave was introduced in this map, extending its axis over Africa from 19N12W to 11N13W. This wave was found using satellite imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave mainly north of 14N between 12W-17W. A tropical wave extends its axis from 10N28W to 01N28W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a rather moist environment, however Saharan dry air and dust is intruding some around the northern segment of the wave. Isolated showers are observed within 150 nm west of the wave's axis. A tropical wave extends over the central Atlantic with axis from 11N48W to 04N52W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate moisture and a diffluent flow aloft. These features are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 06N between 45W-57W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis from 19N72W to 08N73W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a region of limited moisture at low to mid-levels. Isolated showers are north of 15N and west of the wave's axis between 72W-75W. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis from 21N86W to 10N86W, moving westward at about 15 kt. The southern portion of the wave is very near to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. The wave marks the leading edge of deep tropical moisture that trails the wave east to near 83W. Clusters of moderate convection are located within this area of deep moisture south of 17N between 83W-91W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W southwest to near 05N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone then begins from that point to 06N42W. Isolated showers are within 180 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper-level trough extends from eastern United States to the extreme northeast portion of the Gulf waters, then becomes a narrow trough south to near 25N84W. This feature supports a stationary front that is analyzed from 29N83W to 29N90W. Isolated showers are noted along the portion of the front near Louisiana affecting the adjacent waters north of 28N between 89W-93W. This frontal boundary is forecast to gradually become diffuse through Tuesday afternoon, with the remnants possibly lifting back north as a warm front. The portion of the front along the Florida coast may sag some to the south through Tuesday as high pressure to its north builds in from the northwest. To the west, a pair of surface troughs extend across the Bay of Campeche. The first extends from 25N93W to 20N93W while the second is located from 25N97W to 19N94W. Isolated showers are observed along these troughs. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already discussed in the section above. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the waves south of about 17N. These winds are expected to increase to near gale across the Gulf of Venezuela by Tuesday night. Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Windward Passage, north of Jamaica, and over Cuba. Another tropical wave currently over the central tropical Atlantic is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday night, and reach the central Caribbean late on Wednesday. This wave will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain gusty winds. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper-level moderate to strong southwest to west winds continue to advect deep level moisture over the island and surrounding waters as the northern portion of a tropical wave moves across southwestern Haiti. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase over much of the island through the next day or so. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface high pressure covers the basin, with the parent 1025 mb anticyclonic center located just north of the area at 34N45W. A broad upper- level trough along the United Stated eastern seaboard supports a stationary front that extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center near 33N77W southwest to inland northeast Florida. Isolated showers are observed along the front. This activity is expected to continue through late Tuesday as the surface boundary begins to drift southward, and upper-level dynamics provide further support to maintain it active. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA