000 AXNT20 KNHC 260603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 10N26W to 02N27W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW and is under an area of diffluent flow aloft, which is supporting scattered showers from 02N-10N E of 32W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 14N40W to 01N45W, moving W at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show some dry air in the wave environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of deep convection at the moment. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 18N65W to inland Venezuela near 08N66W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of 15N and is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW. Upper level divergence support in the SE basin support scattered showers S of 15N between the Windward Islands and 68W. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the NE Caribbean. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from 19N80W to the coast of Panama near 10N80W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral to unfavorable wind shear and is in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air mainly N of 14N. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are in the SW Caribbean, but mainly associated with the EPAC monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 19N16W to 08N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 07N31W and continues to 08N42W...it then resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N44W to 03N51W. For convection information see the tropical waves section. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are from 04N to 03S between 35W and 40W and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad middle to upper level trough over the eastern USA extends S to a base over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thus supporting a cold front extending across the SE CONUS to the Florida Panhandle near 29N85W to 29N87W where it transitions to a stationary that continues westward towards the coast of Texas near 29N94W. This frontal boundary is supporting isolated showers and tstms along the northern coastal waters of the Gulf. A middle level low over the SW Gulf reflects as a surface trough along 26N92W to 18N93W, which along with upper level diffluence continue to support heavy showers and tstms over the W Gulf S of 27N, including the Bay of Campeche where convection is stronger and with possible gusty winds. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already discussed in the waves section above. Aside from the convective activity associated with them, latest scatterometer data continue to show fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the waves S of 17N, increasing to near gale winds S of 14N. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the lee of Cuba between 78W and 83W. Isolated showers are elsewhere between the Windward Passage and the Leeward Islands. The westernmost wave will move over EPAC waters within 24 hours while the easternmost wave races towards the central basin. A new tropical wave will enter the SE Caribbean waters Monday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level southerly winds continue to advect moisture to Hispaniola, thus supporting cloudiness with possible isolated showers. Showers and tstms are expected to develop across the Island Monday as a tropical wave moves to central Caribbean waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are crossing the tropical Atlantic waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Otherwise, the remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered S of the Azores near 34N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos