000 AXNT20 KNHC 241752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 18N31W to 04N34W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is embedded in a large 700 mb trough, with Saharan dust across the wave environment north of 10N. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of the wave axis south of 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 17N52W to 04N55W, moving westward at around 20 kt. This wave embedded in broad 700mb troughing, with notable turning also evident in satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 52W and 59W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with an axis extending from 16N67W to 06N68W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is indicated by 700 mb troughing in model field data. Dry air an subsidence over the northern portion of the wave is inhibiting convection over the Caribbean, with convection confined to northern Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 08N13W to 07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 07N20W and continues to 08N31W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N36W and continues to 02N42W to 05N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate and isolated strong convection are within 210 nm of either side of the monsoon trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 08N between 35W and 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge axis that extends across the northern Gulf to about 90W along about 28N, supporting moderate southeast winds across the Gulf. The only exception is light winds in the vicinity of the ridge axis over the northeastern Gulf. An upper low over the southwestern Gulf supports scattered thunderstorms mainly south of 24N, west of 89W. Over the next 24 hours a frontal boundary over the southern United States will drift toward the northern Gulf coast, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf. The upper low will move west toward northwestern Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean is void of deep convection today, as mid to upper level dry air has spread across much of the basin. Mainly moderate to fresh trades cover the Caribbean, except light winds over the southwest Caribbean south of 11N. A tropical wave is crossing the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. By Sunday afternoon, a strong Atlantic tropical wave is expected to near the Lesser Antilles with showers and thunderstorms. ...HISPANIOLA... Mainly scattered showers will affect the southern portion of the island through Sunday as a tropical wave passes to the south. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of tropical waves are crossing the tropical north Atlantic waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. A weak surface trough void of convection extends from 27N59W to 24N62W. Another surface trough to the east, which is the reflection of an upper low aloft, extends from 29N49W to 25N51W. This trough supports isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of the trough axis. High pressure centered north of the area of discussion over the central and eastern Atlantic has a ridge axis that extends west- southwest to northern Florida and dominates the remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto