000 AXNT20 KNHC 221147 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas within the last couple of hours. The center of Tropical Storm Cindy at 22/1200 UTC is near 30.5N 93.7W, or about 35 nm NW of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Cindy is moving N at 10 knots. The maximum sustained wind speed is 35 KT with gusts to 45 KT. The minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are N of 27N W of 90W as well as N of 21N between 84W and 90W. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave came off the west coast of Africa last night. Its axis extends from 12N16W to 03N20W. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in moderate moist environment with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of upper level divergence. These factors support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 07N to 13N E of 22W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 11N38W to 0N41W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a mostly very moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of middle level divergence. These factors support numerous to scattered heavy showers and tstms from 0N to 11N between 33W and 45W. A tropical wave is within 150 nm E of the Lesser Antilles. Its axis extends from 16N57W to inland Guyana, moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust hinder convection at the time. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 20N74W to 10N76W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. The wave is entering a region of unfavorable wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of dry air in the northern wave environment, which are limiting the convection to scattered to isolated showers N of 13N. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are S of 13N, mainly associated with the EPAC monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the E Atlc waters near 13N16W and continues along 10N20W to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N44W to 06N56W. For information regarding convection see the tropical waves section. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas earlier this morning. The center of Cindy will move into southeastern Arkansas early Friday, and into Tennessee later on Friday. Cindy is expected to produce rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches over eastern Texas, western and central Louisiana and southern and eastern Arkansas through Friday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over southern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama and extreme western Florida Panhandle are expected through Friday morning. Tropical storm winds in the forecast waters are expected to diminish to fresh to strong winds this evening. For further details on the storm see the Special Features section. Besides the tropical storm force winds in the north-central and NW Gulf, the latest ASCAT pass indicate SE winds of 15 to 25 kt between 85W and 90W. Light to moderate SE winds are over the SW Gulf along with fair skies. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low centered NE of Honduras and a ridge centered over Puerto Rico generate divergent flow aloft ahead of a tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean, thus supporting showers and tstms between 73W and 80W. See the waves section for further details. In the SW basin, the eastern North Pacific monsoon trough continues to support scattered to numerous heavy showers and tstms S of 14N W of 76W, including inland Central America. Fresh to strong winds are in the central basin associated with the wave. Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Honduras while moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. A new tropical wave will enter the E Caribbean later today. Scattered showers will be associated with this wave, especially in the NE basin. ...HISPANIOLA... The passage of a tropical wave continues to generate scattered to isolated showers across Haiti. Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection can be expected through this evening over Hispaniola, especially at the times of diurnal heating. By Friday, chances for precipitation should diminish as the wave pushes westward away from Hispaniola and drier air at the mid and upper levels pushes in from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... There are three tropical waves in the basin. See that section above for further details. Otherwise, the Azores high prevails across the basin being anchored by a 1025 mb high near 35N47W. Two weaknesses in the ridge are being analyzed as surface troughs. One trough is along 29N49W to 23N52W and the second trough is along 32N24W to 25N26W. Isolated showers are within 210 nm either side of both troughs. The modest pressure gradient south of the high is producing light 10-20 KT tradewinds across the Atlantic. No significant areas of convection are occurring away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough/tropical waves. Little change is expected for the next couple of days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos