000 AXNT20 KNHC 211756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, in the Gulf of Mexico, at 21/1800 UTC, is near 27.7N 92.9W, or about 150 nm to the SW of Morgan City Louisiana, and about 140 NM to the SE of Galveston, Texas. Cindy is moving NW westward, 310 degrees, 08 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 knots. The minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 40W from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is very apparent in the Total Precipitable Water imagery as well as the Tropical Wave Diagnostics from 700 mb. However, there is little to no signature of the wave at the surface. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate from 05N to 10N between 40W and 44W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 56W from 15N southward, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is subtle, only showing up in the Tropical Wave Diagnostics from 700 mb. There is little to no signature of the wave at the surface, nor is it apparent in the Total Precipitable Water imagery. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate is from 05N to 08N between 54W and 58W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 72W from 21N to 10N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave was the one that spun up Tropical Storm Bret, but was dropped from the map. Now that Bret has devolved back to a tropical wave, we are reintroducing the wave. The wave is very apparent both at the surface, at 700 mb in the Tropical Wave Diagnostics, and in the Total Precipitable Water imagery. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate from 15N to 28N between 70W and 75W. Maximum surface winds are currently 20 to 30 kt, as observed by an ASCAT scatterometer and buoy 42058. These winds should diminish to 20 kt or less as the wave moves westward and weakens. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 0923W to 07N38W. A small segment of the ITCZ is also present from 05N44W to 05N55W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate from 09N to 12N between 14W and 18W and from 07N to 09N between 30W and 34W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Cindy is producing scattered moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the northwestern quadrant near southwestern Louisiana/eastern Texas as well as from 21N to 27N between 85W and 88W. Numerous showers are also occurring from the Florida panhandle coast to eastern Louisiana as observed in the WSR-88D radar network. Away from the tropical storm, winds and seas are light in the southwestern Gulf. Winds are 20 to 25 kt out of the south-southeast in the eastern Gulf of Mexico along with seas 8 to 12 ft. Precipitation, winds, and seas will diminish in the the Gulf by late on Thursday. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough extends along the southern border of Central America from Guatemala to Panama. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from Nicaragua to Costa Rica to Panama and within 60 nm of the coast in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. See above for discussion about tropical wave near 72W, which are the remnants of Tropical Storm Bret. Winds and seas should diminish to below 20 kt and 8 ft seas, respectively, by Thursday afternoon. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... are 0.60 inches at Tegucigalpa in Honduras, 0.27 inches in Curacao, and 0.27 inches in Trinidad. ...HISPANIOLA... The tropical wave near 72W - the remnants of Tropical Storm Bret - are causing scattered showers over Hispaniola today. Numerous high clouds cover the southern portion of the high, caused by the moderate convection occurring farther south over the central Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection can be expected through Thursday over Hispaniola, especially afternoon hours because of diurnal heating. By Friday, chances for precipitation should diminish as the wave pushes westward away from Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 mb Bermuda/Azores high is centered near 35N49W, north of our area. The modest pressure gradient south of the high is producing light 10-20 kt tradewinds across the Atlantic. No significant areas of convection are occurring away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough/tropical waves. Little change is expected for the next couple of days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea