000 AXNT20 KNHC 201806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Bret is located near 11.6N/66.2W, moving west- northwest at 20 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 17N between 60W and 68W. Bret is expected to weaken below tropical storm strength over the next day or so. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. As of 1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Cindy is centered over the Gulf of Mexico near 25.9N/90.5W, and is nearly stationary. Its minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection are from 20N to 27N between 84W and 87W, and from 27N to 30N between 83W and 91W. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis extending from 14N32W to 02N35W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is well defined with sharp troughing indicated at 700 mb. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 31W and 36W. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis extending from 12N45W to 03N47W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is at the leading edge of a deep moisture surge, with subtle troughing at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 42W and 49W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis extending from 20N71W to 09N72W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave does not have a strong signature at 850 or 700 mb. However, the wave has been tracked utilizing infrared satellite imagery indicating persistent scattered thunderstorms along and within 90 nm east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near 13N16W to 08N22W to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to 06N45W, then resumes east of a tropical wave near 06N48W to 05N55W. Other than convection associated with the two tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic, Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 13W and 24W, and from 05N to 09N between 32W and 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Cindy is over the central Gulf supporting widespread convection. Please refer to the special features section above for details. A surface trough extends from 22N88W to 16N87W supporting heavy rainfall over the Yucatan Peninsula and nearby Gulf waters. Aside from these two features, winds around the perimeter of the Gulf are cyclonic and mainly between 15 to 25 kt. Scattered showers cover the eastern Gulf well away from the storm center. Over the next 24 hours Cindy is expected to move northwest over the north central Gulf. Heavy rainfall will continue over the central Gulf, including land areas of the north- central Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Bret is over the southeastern Caribbean. Please refer to the special features section for more details. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. A surface trough extends from 22N88W to 16N88W and is a southern extension of a broad cyclonic circulation associated with Tropical Storm Cindy to the north. This trough and surrounding low level convergence supports scattered moderate convection and thunderstorms across the western Caribbean, west of 83W. Aside from winds associated with Bret, mainly fresh winds cover the Caribbean basin today, except light winds south of 10N over the southwest Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours the trough will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over the central Caribbean as Bret, or whatever remains of Bret, makes its way across that portion of the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave is moving across the island supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity will continue through tonight as the wave moves west. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday associated with moisture well to the north of Tropical Storm Bret, as is passes to the south of the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Scattered thunderstorms over the Turks and Caicos and surrounding waters are associated with a tropical wave over the central Caribbean. A broad high pressure covers the entire Atlantic anchored by a 1031 mb high north of the area. A weak cold front extends from 31N26W to 25N35W to 27N49W with no significant convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto