000 AXNT20 KNHC 201114 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/0900 UTC, is near 10.6N 62.9W, or about 75 nm to the ESE of La Isla de Margarita of Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The maximum wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/0900 UTC, is near 24.8N 90.1W, about 285 nm to the south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 7 knots. The maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and 46W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward between Puerto Rico and 73W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KGRY and KATP. MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions, from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours. The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.06 in Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still are possible across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough. Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two, followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow. Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are possible across Hispaniola. An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT