000 AXNT20 KNHC 200607 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 207 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 corrected for valid time for T.S. Bret Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/0600 UTC, is near 10.3N 62.1W, or about 50 nm to the west of Trinidad. It is moving WNW westward, 285 degrees, 20 knots. The maximum wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to strong from 10N to 14N between 60W and 65W. Please read the NHC Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/0600 UTC, is near 24.5N 89.9W, about 325 nm to the south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Scattered strong is from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Gulf of Honduras. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/33W from 13N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 12N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, most probably related to the ITCZ, from 02N to 08N between 40W and 52W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/69W from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 73W eastward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, to 10N21W and 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N33W to 03N41W, and 03N51W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 03N to 10N between 13W and 22W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 45 nm on either side of 06N23W 04N27W 01N31W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern Louisiana, to a 27N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico coast near 24N98W and 21N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the Gulf of Mexico, from 90W westward. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KATP, KVOA, KVKY and KMIS. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. MVFR in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. ALABAMA: light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area, and in Gulf Shores with LIFR. FLORIDA: rain from Cross City westward. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours. The Monsoon Trough extends from 08N75W in Colombia, through the eastern sections of Panama, the western sections of Panama, and then beyond NW Costa Rica. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.06 in Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level N wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: rain and thunder. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. earlier rain and thunder have stopped for the moment. Santiago: rain and thunder. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: light rain. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist of N wind flow, becoming cyclonic, as a N-to-S oriented trough will move across Hispaniola from the east to the west. Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two, followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow. Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W cyclonic circulation center. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 125 nm of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic between 68W and 70W. Rainshowers and thunder still are possible across Hispaniola. An upper level trough passes through 32N33W to 27N35W. A cold front passes through 32N25W to 25N40W 27N50W and 31N56W. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 23W and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT