000 AXNT20 KNHC 191807 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 19/1800 UTC is near 8.8N 57.8W, or about 207 nm to the ESE of Trinidad, and it is moving west at 20 knots. Maximum wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Scattered heavy showers with embedded tstms are mainly west of the low center from 06N to 14N between 55W and 62W. The disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands and near the eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Tuesday. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves through the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela tonight and Tuesday. Please read the NHC Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. A 1005 mb low pressure center is north of the Yucatan Peninsula, near 23.4N88.6W with associated surface trough extending from 29N88W to the low center to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N86W. This disturbance is generating numerous heavy showers and tstms from 17N to 25N between 82W and 88W, including the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, the Yucatan channel and western Cuba. Scattered heavy showers are elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 88W. Gale- force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet are several hundred miles east and northeast of the estimated low center. Gradual development of this system is expected today through Tuesday while it moves across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. There is a high chance for tropical or subtropical cyclone development during the next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next day or two. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, and the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 12N28W to 02N29W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear and CIRA LPW show a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air N of 06N associated with Saharan dry air and dust intrusion. There is no convection associated with the wave at the moment. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 11N39W to 03N39W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to its environment limit the convection to isolated showers within 120 nm either side of its axis from 04N to 07N. This convection is being supported by upper level divergence. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 21N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear. However, shallow moisture and an upper level divergent environment support scattered showers and tstms E of 68W, including Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near 08N12W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to 05N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N42W to 05N50W. Two tropical waves and a potential tropical cyclone are embedded within the Monsoon trough/ITCZ. See tropical waves and special features sections for information about convection. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are off the W coast of Africa from 03N to 10N E of 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated area of low pressure covers the eastern Gulf, which is generating numerous heavy showers and tstms from 17N to 25N between 82W and 88W, including the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, the Yucatan channel and western Cuba. Scattered heavy showers are elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 88W. Gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet are also associated with this disturbance. Gradual development of this system is expected today through Tuesday while it moves across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, and tropical or subtropical cyclone development is highly possible. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next day or two. See the special features section and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. Otherwise, gentle to locally fresh N winds are W of 90W along with fair weather being supported by dry air subsidence from aloft. CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous heavy showers with embedded tstms are in the far NW Caribbean associated with a broad disturbance centered in the E Gulf of Mexico. This showers are affecting the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, the Yucatan channel and western Cuba as well as Belize adjacent waters. Scattered to isolated showers are N of 13N W of 80W. Gale force winds are also associated with this disturbance due to a tight pressure gradient between the broad cyclonic circulation and Atlc broad high pressure. See the special features section and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. In the SW Caribbean, scattered heavy showers and tstms are S of 15N between 77W and 81W being supported by the monsoon trough. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are in the E Caribbean associated with a tropical wave with axis currently E of Puerto Rico. See tropical waves section for further details. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather is across the Island. However a tropical wave moving across the E Caribbean will start bringing scattered showers and tstms over the Island starting this afternoon through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, the westernmost with the potential of becoming a tropical storm later today. Please refer to the Tropical Waves and the special features sections above for details. Otherwise, broad high pressure covers the entire Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high N of the area. Otherwise, a weak cold front extends from 30N30W to 29N45W with no convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos