000 AXNT20 KNHC 191110 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 710 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 19/1200 UTC is near 8.3N 53.5W, or about 550 nm to the ESE of Trinidad. It is moving westward, 280 degrees, 20 knots. The maximum wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 07N to 12N between 53W and 59W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, a lot of high-level cloudiness, and other possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 12N to 23N between 48W and 60W. Please read the NHC Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. A 1005 mb low pressure center is near the center of the Yucatan Peninsula, near 19.5N89W. Gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet, cover the Caribbean Sea from 18N northward between 84W and 85W. Gale-force winds are going to be developing in parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon hours of today. A surface trough extends from the 1005 mb low pressure center, to the Florida Big Bend. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from Honduras toward NW Cuba between 82W and 85W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong in the Gulf of Mexico from NW Cuba to 29N between the Florida west coast and 87W. Earlier scattered to numerous strong precipitation, that was covering the areas that are from the northern half of Guatemala to 20N in the Yucatan Peninsula, has weakened. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong remains, mostly in the coastal plains from Belize to 20N in the Yucatan Peninsula. The low pressure center continues to lack a well-defined center of circulation. Gradual development of this system is expected when it moves into the southern or central Gulf of Mexico later today and Tuesday. It is likely that a tropical storm, or a subtropical cyclone may form there. Heavy rains are expected to continue in parts of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next two days is high. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, and the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/29W from 14N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 14N southward between 20W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/40W from 13N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong moderate from 04N to 08N between 35W and 43W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/62W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots into the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 17N to 21N between 60W and 67W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 60W and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 06N33W, 03N44W, and 04N48W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 200 nm of the coast of Africa from 17W eastward, and from 04N to 07N between 29W and 35W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough cuts through southern Mississippi and SE Louisiana, to a 27N92W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N102W in southern Mexico, just to the west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through southern Mississippi, to the 27N92W center, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KBQX, KHHV, KEIR, KATP, KVKY, and KMIS. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Hebbronville. MVFR in Conroe and Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR at the NAS in New Orleans, on the southern side of Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: light rain in Natchez. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area, and in Gulf Shores. LIFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview. LIFR in Sarasota. MVFR in Marathon Key. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 68W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, with a 20N63W Atlantic Ocean-to-10N63W in coastal Venezuela trough. The 60W/62W tropical wave is going to be moving through the same area during the next 24 hours. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and 84W in Costa Rica, and then it continues northwestward, beyond NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere from 15N southward from 75W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 19/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.17 in Guadeloupe, and 0.11 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist of NW wind flow becoming N wind flow during the first half of the day. A N-to-S oriented trough will move to Hispaniola from the east, bringing cyclonic wind flow from the end of day one into at least the middle part of day two. Southerly wind flow will follow as the trough moves westward, away from Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that an inverted trough will cover the area during day one. The inverted trough will move to the west of the area during day two, leaving SW wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours, with Hispaniola being on the southern side of an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, through the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, and that ends near NE coastal Venezuela near 10N63W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 17N to 21N between 60W and 67W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 60W and 70W. A cold front passes through 32N30W to 29N40W and 31N50W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 31N50W beyond 32N54W. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 25N northward between 25W and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W and 72W. A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough, from 20N northeastward, is within 400 nm to 600 nm to the west of Africa. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, to the area of the cold front/stationary front, between Africa and 80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT