000 AXNT20 KNHC 190602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 19/0600 UTC is near 8.3N 53.5W, or about 550 nm to the ESE of Trinidad. It is moving westward, 280 degrees, 20 knots. The maximum wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 08N to 09N between 52W and 55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 09N to 12N between 50W and 55W. Please read the NHC Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. A 1004 mb low pressure center is in the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, cover the Caribbean Sea from 19N northward between 81W and 83W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from Guatemala to the Yucatan Peninsula, from Nicaragua to extreme eastern Honduras, and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 16N to 22N between 84W and 86W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico from NW Cuba at 22N to 26N between 82W and 86W, and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico from 94W eastward. A surface trough extends northward from the area of the 1004 mb low pressure center, toward the Florida Big Bend. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 26N to 31N between 77W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions are forecast to continue through Monday morning. Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula, and in the southern or central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, where it is likely that a tropical or subtropical cyclone may form. Heavy rains are expected in parts of of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next several days. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next two days is high. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, and the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/27W from 14N southward. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 14N between 20W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong moderate from 04N to 08N between 29W and 41W. A tropical wave is along 60W from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots into the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 15N to 17N between 60W and 62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 15N between 62W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N176W, curving to 08N20W and 06N24W. The ITCZ is along 06N27W to 05N35W, 04N38W 04N45W and 07N50W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from 04N to 07N between 08W and 15W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough cuts through southern Mississippi and SE Louisiana, to a 27N92W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N99W in southern Mexico, just to the west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through southern Mississippi, to the 27N92W center, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KHHV. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... ALABAMA: IFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: light rain from St. Petersburg to parts of the Ft. Myers metropolitan area. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 68W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, with a 20N63W Atlantic Ocean-to-10N63W in coastal Venezuela trough. The 60W tropical wave is set to move through the same area during the next 24 hours. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia and 85W in Costa Rica. A surface trough is along 80W/81W from 09N to 14N, in the SW corner of the area. Convective precipitation: scattered strong in Colombia from 07N to 11N at the coast between 72W and 76W. Isolated moderate from 10N southward from 80W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 19/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.17 in Guadeloupe, and 0.11 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. earlier rain and thunder have ended for the moment. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: nearby rainshowers. VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist of NW wind flow becoming N wind flow during the first half of the day. A N-to-S oriented trough will move to Hispaniola from the east, bringing cyclonic wind flow from the end of day one into at least the middle part of day two. Southerly wind flow will follow as the trough moves westward, away from Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that an inverted trough will cover the area during day one. The inverted trough will move to the west of the area during day two, leaving SW wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours, with Hispaniola being on the southern side of an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, through the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, and that ends near NE coastal Venezuela near 10N63W. Convective precipitation: Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 15N to 17N between 60W and 62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 15N between 62W and 67W. A cold front passes through 32N31W to 30N40W and 31N49W. A stationary front continues from 31N49W beyond 32N55W. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 26N northward between 27W and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W and 72W. A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough, from 20N northeastward, is within 400 nm to 600 nm to the west of Africa. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, to the area of the cold front/stationary front, between Africa and 80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT