000 AXNT20 KNHC 161115 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 715 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong from 07N to 09N between 16W and 22W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 02N to 10N between 10W and 23W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 11N southward, moving westward 20 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 05N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 08N between 28W and 36W, and from 01N to 04N between 24W and 28W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward between 23W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 15N southward moving westward 10 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the wave along 10N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 09N to 11N between 40W and 46W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 19N in the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N northward between 60W and 73W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 16N southward, from Honduras to Costa Rica. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 13N to 21N between 78W and 84W, and in Belize. Rainshowers also are between Jamaica and the SW part of Haiti. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through Africa and it reaches the coastal waters of Senegal near 14N17W. It continues from 08N21W to 07N23W 04N27W and 04N30W. The ITCZ was not distinct elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through the coastal waters of South Carolina, to a cyclonic circulation center that is about 45 nm to the west of the coast of SW Florida, through the Yucatan Channel, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Bahamas from 22N to 25N between 74W and 80W. Isolated moderate from 25N northward between 76W and 80W. Rainshowers are possible in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air with subsidence cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 27N69W, across the Bahamas, to 24N87W in the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient is flat and weak everywhere else in the Gulf of Mexico. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KXIH. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... Texas: MVFR skies and ceilings, a bit, in parts of the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains. MVFR/IFR conditions, off and on, from Beaumont/Port Arthur northward to Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR/IFR conditions, off and on a bit, in the coastal plains/southern sections of the state. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in McComb. ALABAMA: LIFR/IFR/MVFR in the coastal plains and southernmost sections of the state. FLORIDA: LIFR in Brooksville, and in parts of the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, with the trough that extends from the SE Gulf of Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level ridge extends from Nicaragua to SE Cuba. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the Atlantic Ocean 33N50W-to-10N60W Atlantic Ocean trough. Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 75W. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N between 72W and 83W. Scattered strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Colombia from 10N to 13N between 74W and 80W, in an area of broad surface low pressure. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for the visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1700 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: light rain and thunder. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A Nicaragua-to- SE Cuba ridge will be to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area, either with an anticyclonic circulation center, or with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours, with Hispaniola being on the southern side of a north-to-south oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 33N50W, to a 26N55W cyclonic circulation center, to 18N59W and 10N60W. A surface trough is along 30N53W 27N56W 23N58W. A second surface trough is along 48W from 18N to 23N. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal sections of Venezuela and near Trinidad from 09N to 11N between 60W and 62W. An upper level trough extends from a 31N21W cyclonic circulation center, to a 22N34W 16N43W, and 10N45W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward from 46W eastward. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 34N31W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N69W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 21N northward between 60W and 76W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT