000 AXNT20 KNHC 150554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 11N southward, moving westward 20 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 05N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 11N southward between 22W and 32W. An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 36W/38W from 15N southward moving westward 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to 12N between 35W and 42W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through an area of upper level W and SW wind flow. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds and remaining isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area from 10N to 20N between 55W and 66W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/81W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 11N to 14N between 77W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal border sections of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N20W and 07N25W. The ITCZ is along 08N40W 07N43W 07N58W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 03N to 07N between 10W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward, mostly between 40W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through SW Georgia, across the Florida Big Bend, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough passes through SW Georgia into N central Florida, and to 28N83W in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of the Tampa metropolitan area. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 79W in the Atlantic Ocean and 88W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge is along 28N85W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near the Mexico coast along 21N. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... Texas: MVFR in Edinburg and Weslaco. LOUISIANA: heavy rain in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. MVFR at the NAS in New Orleans. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview, Destin, and in Brooksville. Moderate rain at the Tampa Executive Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from Nicaragua to NW Cuba. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 75W westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the 31N59W-to- 20N61W Atlantic Ocean trough. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area, either with an anticyclonic circulation center, or with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area for the first six hours or so, with an inverted trough. SE wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the time, with Hispaniola being on the southern side of a north-to-south oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 31N59W cyclonic circulation center, to 20N61W. Isolated moderate rainshowers from 23N northward between 53W and 70W, and from 28N northward between 70W and 80W. An upper level trough extends from a 30N27W cyclonic circulation center, to a 25N35W cyclonic circulation center, to 12N40W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 33N29W, to 31N41W 25N55W, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 28N69W, to central Florida. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT