000 AXNT20 KNHC 150003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean associated with a 1011 mb low near 05N26W. The wave axis extends from 09N26W to the low to 01N26W and has been moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show moderate low level moisture with patches of dry air. Favorable wind shear and a diffluent environment at the upper levels support scattered moderate convection SE of the low center from 0N-4.5N between 23W-28W. Some slight development of this system is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 13N35W to 05N36W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is in a moderate moist environment, with some patches of dry air. The wave coincides with a diffluent environment aloft and is in a region of favorable wind shear, however enhanced satellite imagery show Saharan dry air in the wave environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered showers from 09N-12N between 34W and 37W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 17N62W to 10N62W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is in a moderate moist environment, with some patches of dry air. The wave is also in a region of unfavorable wind shear. However, upper level divergence support scattered showers and tstms across the Lesser Antilles and from 13N-16N between 60W and 68W. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending from 18N76W to 08N77W, moving westward at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show abundant and very moist air in the wave environment, however it is in a region of strong shear. Middle level diffluence support scattered to isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near 11N15W to 05N26W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 07N50W to 06N57W. Most of the convective activity is associated with two tropical waves. See waves section above. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are from 03N to 07N between 10W and 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb located over the SE CONUS extends a ridge across the north-central and eastern Gulf region, thus supporting moderate to locally fresh SE flow. Shallow moisture being advected from the Caribbean along with the presence of an upper level trough support scattered showers across the central and northern Florida peninsula and the Florida straits. Plenty of moisture and the risk of some heavy showers and thunderstorms will be very possible across south Florida through the weekend. Abundant moisture are also expected to persist over the SE Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. This weather pattern will be associated with a broad area of low pressure forecast to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas by the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly northwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to increase over the SW Gulf by late Saturday ahead of the low pressure expected to approach the region through northern Central America. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please see the tropical waves section for more details. These tropical waves will become absorbed in a broad area of low pressure forecast to form over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed over the SW Gulf near 10N82W. This low is producing scattered heavy showers and thunderstorm activity S of 18N between 77W and 85W. This low is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. Scatterometer data show moderate to fresh trades across the east and central Caribbean and fresh to locally strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are seen over the NW Caribbean. This wind pattern will continue through Thursday. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas by the weekend bringing more rain to the area. In fact, computer models indicate plenty of moisture across the western and central Caribbean Sea, and over most of Cuba during the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level trough in the SW Atlantic extends south to a base over Hispaniola. This trough, combined with E-SE winds at low levels support scattered showers and tstms across almost the entire Island. Late tomorrow, expect a gradual increase in moisture as a tropical wave approaches from the east. This will support the continuation of showers through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough extends from 30N60W to 24N66W and support isolated showers and tstms from 28N-33N between 55W and 59W. A 1021 mb center of high pressure is west of this trough anchored near 28N68W, which is expected to move SE to near 26N65W by Thursday night. Otherwise, broad high pressure covers the Atlantic from the Azores to 60W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are around the southern periphery of the ridge between the Windward Islands and 30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos