000 AXNT20 KNHC 131026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along the coast of west Africa with axis from 11N15W to 04N15W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is a low amplitude wave with a very moist area on SSMI TPW imagery. The 700 mb trough is also S of 10N. The GFS model guidance shows a tropical wave with axis near 15W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N-10N between 13W-20W. A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis from 12N29W to 05N31W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is associated with broad 700 mb troughing. The SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is embedded in deep-layer moisture S of 15N. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-11N between 27W-31W. A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis from 12N37W to 04N39W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is associated with broad 700 mb troughing. SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is encountering dry air to the north of 10N. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis S of 10N. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis from 13N50W to 05N52W moving westward at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is embedded in deep-layer moisture S of 14N. The 700 mb trough is depicted along 53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 50W-54W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis from 15N72W to 06N72W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is associated with 700 mb troughing. SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is encountering dry air to the W of the axis. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the axis over W Venezuela and N Colombia. A tropical wave is over Central America with axis from E Honduras at 15N84W to the E Pacific at 06N83W moving westward at 10 kt. This wave is associated with weak 700 mb troughing. The wave is also interacting with the Monsoon Trough, which passes over the SW Caribbean. However, upper-level ridging from the Gulf of Honduras to the central Caribbean is producing subsidence over this wave inhibiting deep convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N17W to 08N20W to 07N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 07N38W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N41W to 08N51W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 09N54W and extends to the coast of South America near 09N61W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N between 33W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends from S Georgia at 32N to central Texas at 32N producing 10-15 kt SE surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N96W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough axis. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over S Texas and the W Gulf, while upper level moisture is over the E Gulf and Florida. Expect scattered showers over the E Gulf and Florida over the next 24 hours. Also expect more convection over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are passing over the Caribbean and Central America. Please see the tropical waves section for more details. Numerous strong convection is inland over S Mexico and Guatemala. The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure associated with the Monsoon Trough is generating moderate to fresh east to east- southeast winds over the Caribbean basin. Winds are strongest over the Gulf of Honduras and along the northern coast of Colombia. Upper-level ridging from the Gulf of Honduras to the central Caribbean is combining with an upper-level trough passing over the eastern Caribbean from Puerto Rico to central Venezuela to create a subsident environment over the basin which is inhibiting deep convection. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level trough extending southward over Puerto Rico into the Caribbean is inhibiting convection somewhat. However, colder air aloft is providing the instability for showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the mountains during the afternoon and early evening Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A weak surface trough off the Florida East Coast from 30N79W to 26N79W is supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Florida coast west of 78W. This trough is expected to persist for the next 12 hours. A surface trough is located over the central Atlantic from 29N59W to 24N59W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the axis. A weakening 1020 mb surface low is centered near 29N38W. No deep convection is noted. Otherwise, broad high pressure covering the Atlantic from the Azores to the Carolinas is generating moderate trades north of the ITCZ to 22N between the Windward Islands and 30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa