000 AXNT20 KNHC 121724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 14N25W to 07N25W, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 24W and 27W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 13N34W to 06N34W, moving westward at about 20 kt. This wave is embedded in 700 mb troughing between 29W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 31W and 39W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 14N46W to 07N48W, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. This wave is associated with a maximum poleward extent in moisture in the region, and a notable inverted 700 mb trough between about 44W and 55W. Isolated moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 43W and 50W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis extending from 18N67W to 09N67W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is embedded in 700 mb troughing between 64W and 70W. Dry air and subsidence in the wave environment is inhibiting deep convection. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean south of 17N along 81W has been drifting westward the past few days. This wave is associated with 700 mb troughing between 77W and 82W. The wave is also interacting with the Monsoon Trough over the SW Caribbean to support scattered moderate convection south of 13N and west of 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of west Africa near 15N17W to 10N24W to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends from 07N36W to 10N46W, and resumes west of a tropical wave near 11N48W to 09N62W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N, east of 22W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ axis between 50W and 56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Favorable lift for convection due to an upper trough over the northwest Gulf and Texas is interacting with a moist environment over the central and eastern Gulf to support areas of showers with embedded scattered thunderstorms west of 94W. A surface trough extending from 24N95W to 18N94W is helping to enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity to the east of the trough axis over the Bay of Campeche. High pressure over the Atlantic has an axis that extends north of the basin supporting mainly moderate southeast winds, except strong and gusty in and near thunderstorms. Over the next 24 hours showers and thunderstorms will continue over much of the basin, increasing in coverage over the western Gulf, and decreasing in coverage over the southeast Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of tropical waves are over the Caribbean. Please see the tropical waves section for more details. The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures associated with the Monsoon Trough supports moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the majority of the Caribbean basin today. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave and Monsoon Trough, scattered thunderstorms are north of 16N between 70W and 78W associated with a weak upper low. Over the next 24 hours the tropical wave over the southwest Caribbean will drift west supporting ongoing convection. ...HISPANIOLA... A weak upper low moving across the area will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the southern portion of the island this afternoon and early evening. Drier conditions are expected tonight, with another round of showers and thunderstorms over the southern portion on Tuesday afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. An upper trough to the west of Florida is supporting scattered thunderstorms just east of north Florida north of 27N and west of 78W. A surface trough extends from 29N50W to 21N58W with no deep convection noted. A 1018 mb low is centered near 30N37W with a dissipating stationary front extending from the low to 26N40W to 29N49W. No deep convection is noted. High pressure centered south of the Azores dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours a surface trough will develop offshore north Florida and will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms. The stationary front over the central Atlantic will dissipate to a surface trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto