000 AXNT20 KNHC 121040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the far east Atlantic with axis from 14N23W to 07N24W. Isolated showers are observed in the wave's environment mostly related to the presence of the Monsoon Trough from 06N-10N and east of 22W. Another Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 13N32W to 06N32W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in deep moisture and inverted 700 mb troughing between 30W and 35W. Some African dust surrounds the wave. Isolated showers are near the wave's axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 14N45W to 07N46W, moving westward at about 15-20 kt. This wave is at the leading edge of an increase in low to mid level moisture, and is also evident in 850 and 700 mb model fields. Isolated showers are observed near the wave's axis along 10N. A tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean. Its axis extends from 19N62W to 08N62W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave shows up pretty well in the TPW animation and coincides with a 700 mb inverted trough. The wave has produced a few showers across the islands. A tropical wave is drifting westward across the southwest Caribbean and extends from 17N80W to 08N80W. The wave combined with the Monsoon Trough is helping to induce clusters of moderate to strong convection south of 11N between 76W-81W affecting parts of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of west Africa near 18N16W to 10N23W, then resumes from 09N25W to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 08N42W, them resumes west of a tropical wave at 08N48W to 06N57W. Aside of the convection described in the section above with the tropical wave near Africa, isolated showers are observed along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from 23N95W to 19N93W. Scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate winds east of the trough axis and mainly light winds ahead of it. The proximity of T.D. Three-E currently located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southern portion of the trough south of 20N between 90W-95W. A diffluent flow aloft between an upper-level trough located over the western Gulf and an anticyclone situated over the northwest Caribbean continues to support cloudiness and isolated showers across the east Gulf east of 90W. Abundant moisture will persist across the Gulf region today as a moist and humid southerly wind flow prevails. High pressure will build west across Gulf in the wake of the trough through in the evening hours today. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Latest scatterometer data provided observations of moderate to fresh trades across much of the area, with fresh to locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and also over the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate southeast winds were noted across the northwest Caribbean, mainly north 16N and west of 85W. High pressure located north of the area combined with lower pressures along the Monsoon Trough over the southwest Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the basin today, with the strongest winds across the south-central Caribbean, southwest Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. The pressure gradient will relax some during mid week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwest Caribbean by mid week, and shift gradually northwest through Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level low spinning over eastern Puerto Rico is producing a dry mid to upper northerly flow over the island. Limit shower activity is expected across the island today, with isolated showers or thunderstorms in association with local effects. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward across the basin. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough persists east of Florida and extends from 31N70W to 29N74W. Convection continues to diminish in association with this trough. To the east, another surface trough extends from 29N48W to 21N57W. A 1018 mb surface low is located near 29N37W with a stationary front extending from the low to 30N34W to 27N29W to 29N25W. A weakening stationary front extends from the low to 28N46W. No deep convection is associated to these features. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located near 32N52W. The high pressure will remain nearly stationary during the next 24 hours. The trough in the central Atlantic will move westward today, and will dissipate later tonight. The low is forecast by the computer models to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA