000 AXNT20 KNHC 112326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 726 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 13N28W to 04N29W, moving westward at around 20 kt. This wave is embedded in deep moisture and inverted 700 mb troughing between 24W and 30W. Some Africant dust surrounds the wave. Isolated showers are near the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 14N42W to 06N43W, moving westward at about 20 kt. This wave is at the leading edge of an increase in low to mid level moisture, and is also evident in 850 and 700 mb model fields. No deep convection is currently noted with this wave. Another tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles. This wave was re-analyzed farther east over the past 24 hours. Its axis extends from Guadeloupe to the NE coast of Venezuela. The wave shows up pretty well in the TPW animation and coincides with a 700 mb inverted trough. The wave has produced only a few showers across the islands. Another tropical wave is drifting westward across the SW Caribbean and extends from 16N78W across eastern Panama into the EPAC. The wave combined with the Monsoon Trough is helping to induce clusters of moderate to strong convection south of 11N and west of 78W, and over parts of Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of west Africa near 14N16W to 10N20W to 09N27W. The ITCZ extends from 09N31W to 08N42W, them resumes west of a tropical wave at 09N45W to 07N58W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted along the west coast of Africa from 04N to 13N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed from 24N92W to 19N93W. Scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate winds east of the trough axis and mainly light winds ahead of the trough axis. Upper diffluence between an upper-level trough located over the western Gulf and anticyclone situated over the NW Caribbean continues to support convection across much of the Gulf region and east of the upper trough that extends from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Satellite imagery and lightning data show scattered to numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms across the Gulf east of 92W, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the north Gulf states from Louisiana to Georgia, including also the central and north Florida. The trough will continue to drift N-NW through early Mon accompanied by showers and tstms. Abundant moisture will persist across the Gulf region on Monday as a moist and humid southerly wind flow prevails. High pres will build west across Gulf in the wake of the trough through late Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Another tropical wave is interacting with the eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough to support convection over portions of the SW Caribbean. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Latest scatterometer data provided observations of moderate to fresh trades across much of the area, with fresh to locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate SE winds were noted across the NW Caribbean, mainly north 18N. High pressure located north of the area combined with lower pressures along the monsoon trough over the SW Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the basin on Monday, with the strongest winds across the south- central Caribbean, SW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. The pressure gradient will relax some during mid week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the SW Caribbean by mid week, and shift gradually NW through Fri. ...HISPANIOLA... A weak upper-level low spinning over Puerto Rico is producing a dry mid to upper northerly flow over Hispaniola. Limit shower activity is expected across the island on Monday, with isolated showers or thunderstorms in association with the local effects. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough persists east of Florida and extends from 31N74W to 28N80W. Convection has diminished in association with this trough over the past 24 hours. A stationary front remains over the central Atlantic. A pair of weak lows are along the frontal boundary, one near 30N35W and the other near 28N49W. A surface trough extends from the westernmost low to 21N54W. No deep convection is associated with the entire system. Visible satellite imagery showed very well the two low centers. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure located near 32N56W. The high pressure will move eastward to a position near 32N47W in about 24 hours. The trough will move westward on Monday, and the associated low will disipate. The easternmost low is forecast by the computer model to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR