000 AXNT20 KNHC 111748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 13N26W to 04N27W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is embedded in deep moisture and inverted 700 mb troughing between 24W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N between 23W and 32W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 15N38W to 07N39W, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. This low amplitude wave is at the leading edge of an increase in low to mid level moisture, and is also evident in 850 and 700 mb model fields. No deep convection is currently noted with this wave. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been re-analyzed farther east over the past 24 hours, and is approaching the Windward Islands. The wave has an axis that extends from 16N59W to 08N59W, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. This wave is associated with a poleward surge in moisture, and a notable inverted 700 mb trough between about 57W to 62W. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 53W and 61W. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean has been drifting westward the past 24 hours and has an axis that currently extends from 15N78W to 08N78W. This wave is associated with 700 mb troughing between 75W and 80W. The wave is also interacting with the Monsoon Trough over the SW Caribbean to support clusters of moderate to strong convection south of 12N and west of 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of west Africa near 13N16W to 09N23W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N29W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 08N58W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N, east of 17W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of either side of the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ axis, west of 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of surface troughs are over the Gulf, with the easternmost trough axis extending from 28N83W to 27N87W, and the westernmost trough axis extending from 25N92W to 18N93W. These troughs are interacting with an upper low centered over SE Texas to support scattered moderate convection with thunderstorms mainly north of 22N and east of 93W. Mainly moderate southeast winds cover the Gulf today, except for light winds near the western surface trough, and strong variable winds near the thunderstorms. Over the next 24 hours the upper low will drift north as the surface troughing moves northward in tandem, bringing showers and thunderstorms across much of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the southwestern Caribbean, interacting with the Monsoon Trough. Please see the tropical waves section for more details. The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures associated with the Monsoon Trough supports moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the majority of the Caribbean basin today, with locally strong east winds along the Coast of Colombia, western Venezuela, and the Gulf of Honduras. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave and Monsoon Trough, the basin is currently void of deep convection. Over the next 24 hours the tropical wave over the southwest Caribbean will drift west supporting ongoing convection. A tropical wave about the cross the Windward Islands will enter the eastern Caribbean with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. ...HISPANIOLA... A weak upper low moving across the area will support isolated showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain today. Additional moisture currently just east of the island will spread over the area over the next 24 hours supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough extends along 31N between 73W and 81W supporting scattered showers. A pre-frontal trough extends south of a stationary front north of the area of discussion to 31N69W to 29N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 240 nm east of the trough axis. A stationary front extends from 31N34W to a 1018 mb low near 28N47W. A surface trough extends from the low to 21N54W. No deep convection is associated with this system. However, fresh to strong northeast winds can be found within 120 nm north of the low and stationary front. Over the next 24 hours high pressure will expand across the central and western Atlantic. The low and stationary front over the central Atlantic will weaken to surface troughs. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto