000 AXNT20 KNHC 111046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 12N25W to 04N25W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a deep moisture surge and an inverted trough is noted at 700 mb. An area of scattered moderate convection prevails south of 10N between 25W-30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N36W to 07N37W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. The wave shows up pretty well in the TPW animation and 700 mb streamline analysis. Convection is limited near the wave's axis. A tropical wave is located near the Lesser Antilles. This wave was repositioned based on sounding data, satellite signature, and model diagnostics. Its axis extends from 16N55W to 08N57W. At this time, no significant convection is related to this wave. A tropical wave extends was repositioned across the south-central Caribbean, based on satellite signature and model diagnostics. Its axis extends from 15N75W to 07N77W. An area of showers is observed over the southern portion of the wave mostly related to the presence of the Monsoon Trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from 14N17W to 12N21W then resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N28W to 09N36W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 08N56W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical waves section, a small cluster of isolated showers is observed along the ITCZ between 42W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The surface trough extends across the western Gulf from 28N90W to 21N92W. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection east of 90W, with strongest activity north of 25N. The trough will continue to drift northwest today accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Computer models indicate that abundant moisture will prevail today across the area east of 92W, including the Yucatan Peninsula and most of the Florida Peninsula, resulting in more shower and thunderstorm activity. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the trough's axis. Mainly moderate east to southeast winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. High pressure will build west across Gulf in the wake of the trough through late Monday with increasing winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the section above for more information about the tropical waves. The proximity of the Monsoon Trough currently extending over Central America is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 11N between 78W-84W. Scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh southerly winds across the northwest Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong trades are over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds within 90 nm to the north of the coast of Colombia. The Atlantic high pressure centered near 31N54W will maintain fresh to strong trades across the basin today and Monday, with the strongest winds across the south-central Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air and subsidence aloft will continue over the island through tonight. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A frontal trough extends from 31N73W to northeast Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 29N between 67W-72W just south of a stationary front that extends along 32N. The trough will continue to drift northwest and weaken today. To the east, a cold front is moving southward across the central Atlantic and extends from a weak 1018 mb low pressure near 27N46W to 22N52W to 23N61W. Latest satellite imagery showed very well the surface low and the frontal boundary. The cold front will continue to move southward across the central Atlantic on today, then stall and drift back north on Monday. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure located near 31N55W. The high pressure will move slowly westward over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA