000 AXNT20 KNHC 101739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave exited the Africa coast yesterday and has an axis that currently extends from 13N19W to 04N19W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is embedded in a deep moisture surge and inverted 700 mb troughing. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection are from 03N to 12N west of 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 14N34W to 04N35W, moving westward at about 20 kt. This wave is low amplitude and is marked by a enhancement in low to mid level moisture south of 12N, and is also evident in 850 and 700 mb model fields. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave axis, south of 12N. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands, and has an axis that extends from 16N59W to 06N61W, moving westward at around 20 kt. This wave is associated with a poleward surge in moisture, and a notable inverted 700 mb trough along about 55W-60W. Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm of either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave that has been recently identified over the western Caribbean has been tracked using infrared satellite imagery loops from the past several days as it triggered convection over South America. This wave has an axis that extends from 16N77W to 05N77W, moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is south of 12N within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends the Atlantic Ocean near 10N15W to 07N20W to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 08N44W, then resumes west of a surface trough near 08N46W to 08N54W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is within about 120 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of a stationary front, now a surface trough, extends from 27N82W to 24N88W. This trough is interacting with a very moist airmass and an upper trough to the west to support areas of showers with scattered thunderstorms south of 28N and east of 89W. Moderate southerly winds are south of the trough axis. Mainly moderate easterly winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. A weakening thermal trough extends from about 23N91W to 18N92W and supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60 nm of the trough axis north of 22N. Over the next 24 hours the eastern Gulf trough will move northwest and will accompany an increase of moisture to the north central and northeast Gulf resulting in showers and thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 22N85W to 17N87W supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms north of 17N west of 84W. Another surface trough extends from 14N83W to 10N83W, supporting scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N west of 80W. A tropical wave is interacting with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough to support convection over other portions of the SW Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the islands as well as the E Caribbean, east of 63W. The remainder of the Caribbean is void of convection. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds cover the Caribbean, except fresh to strong east winds over the south-central Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours the NW Caribbean trough will move into the Gulf of Mexico. Little change is expected over the SW Caribbean. Showers will increase over the eastern Caribbean associated with the tropical wave. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather with dry air and subsidence aloft will continue over the island through tonight. An upper low to east of the area, responsible for the dry air, will cross the island Sunday, with the more unstable portion of the low reaching the area Sunday afternoon. This will cause an increase in showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N79W to 28N80W, supporting scattered moderate convection and thunderstorms within 60 nm north, and 150 nm south of the frontal boundary. A 1025 mb high is centered near 29N57W, covering the remainder of the southwest north Atlantic with east to southeast trade winds. A frontal system is over the central Atlantic with a stationary front that enters the area of discussion near 31N35W and extends to a 1020 mb low near 28N44W. A cold front extends from the low to 25N50W to 27N55W. No deep convection is noted. Fresh to strong northeast winds are north of the frontal boundaries. A dissipating 1023 mb high is centered near 27N36W. Over the next 24 hours the stationary front east of Florida will transition to a surface trough and drift northward with convection. The frontal system will persist over the central Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto