000 AXNT20 KNHC 091711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 111 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 14N22W to 05N23W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Unfavorable wind shear and Saharan dry air hinder convection north of 11N. Scattered moderate convection is in the southern wave environment from 04N-09N between 19W-24W where CIRA LPW also shows abundant low level moisture. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 13N45W to 03N46W, moving west at 20 kt. Saharan dry air and dust are in the northern wave environment, which is limiting convection to isolated moderate from 03N-08N between 42W-49W. A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from 14N58W to 05N59W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW show moderate low level moisture in the wave environment with large patches of dry air. The wave is under diffluent flow aloft, that supports isolated showers from 06N-11N between 54W-62W. A tropical is in the southwest Caribbean Sea with axis extending from 15N82W to 07N81W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW show moderate moisture with patches of dry air at the lower levels. Upper level diffluence aloft support scattered to isolated showers from 10N-15N between 74W-78W. This wave is forecast to traverse Central America today. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 09N22W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 09N24W and continues to 04N37W to 06N45W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave near 06N48W and continues to the coast of South America near 06N54W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 10W-18W. Similar convection is from 06N-09N between 27W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is over S Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico from 27N80W to 24N84W dissipating to 24N89W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. A 1015 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 31N83W producing 10 kt SE surface winds over the NE Gulf. 5-10 kt variable winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, a trough axis extends from N Georgia near 35N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf. Expect the front to remain quasi-stationary through tonight, then weaken to a surface trough early Saturday before dissipating Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean, while another wave is about to enter the Caribbean. See above. A surface trough is centered over the Gulf of Honduras from 21N86W to 16N88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W Caribbean from 16N-21N between 83W-88W. Further S, scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 11N-13N between 76W-78W. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NW Caribbean W of 80W. An upper level low is centered over the Leeward Islands near 18N64W. Upper level diffluence is over the Windward Islands producing scattered showers. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical waves to move W. Also expect scattered showers and convection to persist over the S Caribbean and Central America. ...HISPANIOLA... Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will combine with moisture in the region to produce cloudiness with scattered showers, particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three more tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the waves section above for details. A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N79W to the low over central Florida near 28N82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic E of the front to 74W, and N of 23N. A large 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 29N35W producing fair weather. Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the W Atlantic significantly enhancing convection. Expect the convection over the W Atlantic to persist for the next 24 hours as the front moves E and extends from 31N75W to 29N77W to S Florida near 27N80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa