000 AXNT20 KNHC 091054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 14N19W to 05N20W, moving west at 5 kt. Unfavorable wind shear and Saharan dry air hinder convection north of 11N. Scattered heavy showers are in the southern wave environment from 04N-11N E of 22W where CIRA LPW show abundant low level moisture. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 13N44W to 03N45W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Saharan dry air and dust are in the northern wave environment, which is limiting convection to scattered showers from 03N-08N between 40W-50W. A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from 14N56W to 05N57W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW show moderate low level moisture in the wave environment with large patches of dry air. The wave is under diffluent flow aloft, which support isolated showers from 06N-11N between 54W- 60W. A tropical is in the southwest Caribbean Sea with axis extending from 16N80W to 08N81W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW show moderate moisture with patches of dry air at the lower levels. Upper level diffluence aloft support scattered to isolated showers from 10N-15N between 74W-78W. This wave is forecast to reach the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua by early Saturday morning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across inland Africa. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 09N21W to 07N31W to 06N43W...then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N47W and continues to 06N57W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is across south Florida and extends across the SE Gulf from 25N81W to 24N87W where it starts dissipating. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the dissipating boundary. Diffluence aloft between the upper trough that support the front and ridging across the central Caribbean support isolated showers across the Florida straits. The front will remain stationary through tonight and then will weaken into a surface trough early Saturday before dissipating Sunday. Weak high pressure covers the remainder basin in the wake of the front, which currently provide light to gentle NE-E flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level diffluence between the trough that support a frontal boundary N of the area and a ridge over the central Caribbean continue to support a line of heavy showers and tstms as well as gusty winds in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends from 22N84W to inland Honduras near 14N88W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are S of 21N W of 82W. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean waters and supports scattered to isolated showers in this region. See the tropical waves section for further details. Scatterometer data provide observations of mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted across the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean tonight and will continue over the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will combine with moisture in the region to produce cloudiness with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A cold front extends from 30N74W to a 1010 mb low near 29N77W from which a stationary continues SW to 27N80W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are within 210 nm east of the frontal boundary, including the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds and scattered showers and tstms will prevail SE of the front through Saturday. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by three 1021 mb high pressure centers at 27N52W, 27N42W and 30N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos