000 AXNT20 KNHC 090604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 13N18W to 05N18W, moving west at 5 kt. Unfavorable wind shear and Saharan dry air hinder convection north of 10N. Scattered heavy showers are in the southern wave environment from 05N-07N between 16W and 20W where CIRA LPW show abundant low level moisture. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 11N44W to 03N45W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Saharan dry air and dust are in the wave environment, which is limiting convection to isolated showers from 03N-07N between 41W-49W. A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from 13N55W to 04N56W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW show moderate low level moisture in the wave environment with large patches of dry air. The wave is under diffluent flow aloft, which support scattered showers from 05N-10N between 50W- 56W and isolated showers from 56W-60W. A tropical is in the central Caribbean Sea with axis extending from 19N76W to 11N77W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW show moderate moisture with patches of dry air at the lower levels. Upper level diffluence aloft support scattered to isolated showers from 11N-16N between 74W-80W. This wave is forecast to cross 80W by Friday evening, likely reaching the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua by early Saturday morning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to to 09N16W. The ITCZ begins near 09N20W to 07N34W to 06N44W...then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N46W and continues to 06N55W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 21W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Former cold front has stalled across south Florida and extends across the SE Gulf from 25N81W to 23N87W with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of it. Diffluence aloft between the upper trough that support the front and ridging across the central Caribbean continue to support scattered showers across the Florida straits. The front will remain stationary through Friday night and then will weaken into a surface trough Saturday before dissipating Sunday. Weak high pressure covers the remainder basin in the wake of the front, which currently provide gentle NE flow. A surface trough has moved from the NW Caribbean into the Yucatan Peninsula supporting showers inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level diffluence between the trough that support a frontal boundary N of the area and a ridge over the central Caribbean continue to support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms N of 18N W of 79W and numerous heavy showers and tstms in the Gulf of Honduras S of 17W. Fresh to strong winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras with potential gusty winds. A tropical wave is moving into SW Caribbean waters and supports scattered to isolated showers in this region. See the tropical waves section for further details. Scatterometer data provide observations of mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted across the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean Friday night and will continue over the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will combine with moisture in the region to produce cloudiness with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A cold front extends from 30N75W to ta 1010 mb low near 29N78W from which a stationary continues SW to 27N80W. Scattered showers and tstms are within 210 nm east of the frontal boundary, including the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds and scattered showers and tstms will prevail SE of the front through Saturday. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure located near 27N44W. A new high pressure center is forecast to develop along the ridge axis near 28N55W in about 18 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos