000 AXNT20 KNHC 080945 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 545 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is coming off the west coast of Africa. Its axis extends from 16N15W to 06N15W. Upper level divergence support scattered heavy showers and tstms east of the wave axis from 05N-10N. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 11N35W to 02N36W, moving west at 5 kt within the last 24 hours. Saharan dry air and dust are in the wave environment N of 08N as well as unfavorable wind shear. Middle level diffluence and abundant moisture associated with the ITCZ support numerous heavy showers from 04N-08N between 32W-41W. A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from 12N50W to 03N51W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show abundant low level moisture associated with the wave, which along with upper level divergence support scattered to isolated showers from 07N-12N between 46W-52W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea with axis extending from 19N68W to inland Venezuela near 10N70W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Unfavorable wind shear and deep layer dry air in the region inhibit convection at the time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 08N25W to 06N34W...then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N38W and continues to 07N49W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low near West Virginia extends a trough S-SE to a broad base over the NW Caribbean, which continue to support a 1005 mb low over the Florida Big Bend adjacent waters near 29N83W. From the low, a cold front extends SW along 25N86W to 24N91W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the low center and inland Florida east of the low. A diffluent environment aloft between the upper trough and a ridge that covers portions of the NW and central Caribbean support scattered showers and tstms and gusty winds across the Florida straits. The cold front will move to central Florida today where it will stall before weakening to a surface trough Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface trough formerly over the Yucatan Peninsula moved to the NW Caribbean where it extends from 22N84W SW to a 1009 mb low over Belize. Diffluent flow aloft between an upper ridge in the central Caribbean and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico support numerous heavy showers, tstms and gusty winds S of 22N W of 84W. Convection in this area is forecast to persist through Friday. Similar convection is over the coastal waters between Panama and Colombia associated with a 1009 mb near 10N76W from which the EPAC monsoon trough extends westward to 11N80W to northern Costa Rica and into the Pacific ocean. Scattered to isolated showers and tstms are elsewhere in the SW basin S of 13N associated with the monsoon. Otherwise, a tropical wave is in the central basin, however it lacks convection. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves Section for more details. Scatterometer data provide observations of mainly moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate SE flow is over the NW Caribbean on the SW periphery of a ridge that enters the basin through eastern Cuba. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave moves across the Island today, however unfavorable wind shear and deep layer dry air across the region hinder convection at the time. Model guidance indicate the development of showers across Hispaniola tonight and Friday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Southwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is providing scattered showers and tstms across the Florida straits, the Grand Bahama Bank and the SW North Atlc waters N of 22N W of 72W. High pressure of 1022 mb located near 30N38W extends a ridge SW through the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba into the Caribbean Sea. This system dominates most of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front located just north of area W of 70W, and across northern Florida will sink slowly south today reaching near 30N77W to Cape Canaveral tonight. Fresh to strong SW winds and scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected SE of the front. The remainder of the area will continue under the influence of the above mentioned ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos