000 AXNT20 KNHC 072350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 727 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 12N34W to 02N35W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Saharan dry air and dust are in its environment. A 700 mb trough is also noted. Convection is confined to the ITCZ axis. A tropical wave extends from 11N47W to 02N48W, moving west at 20 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave shows up pretty well in the TPW animation where a bulge of moisture is noted near the wave axis. IR satellite imagery shows a couple of small clusters of showers with embedded thunderstorms on the east side of the wave axis near 08N43W and near 08N46W. A tropical wave is over Caribbean Sea near 70W, moving west at 15-20 kt. TPW imagery shows a well defined moisture plume just behind the wave axis. A 700 mb tough is also noted. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers near the ABC Islands and western Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N34W to 07N41W to NE French Guiana. As previously mentioned, a pair of tropical waves are embedded within the ITCZ. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-09N between 23W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 31W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a 1003 mb low pressure is analyzed over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29.5N86W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to the W Gulf near 24N93W. This system is producing very heavy rain and thunderstorms over Florida and parts of the SE CONUS. The Mosaic Doppler Radar from the SE U.S. and lightning data show a wide band of showers and thunderstorms affecting most of the central and south Florida, including also the Florida Keys. This convective activity extends farther south across the Straits of Florida and parts of western Cuba, particularly over the provinces of Artemisa and Mayabeque and the city of Havana, and is also reaching the NW Bahamas. Strong gusty winds are expected in and near the tstms. Rainfall totals of as much as 15-20 inches( 350-500 mm) have already fallen in portions of south Florida over the last 48 hours. Gusty winds of up to 50 kt were reported acrosss the SW coast of Florida late in the morning and this afternoon in association with a strong line of thunderstorms. Unfortunally, it appears that the weather conditions will stay unsettled in south Florida through Friday. The low pressure is forecast to move E across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic tonight. The associated trough will also move east through Thursday before stalling over the SE Gulf on Friday. A deep layered trough, with axis across the central Gulf, supports the low and surface trough. Abundant tropical moisture will persist over south Florida and the SE Gulf through at least Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is near 70W. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves Section for more details. The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of mainly moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate SE flow is over the NW Caribbean on the SW periphery of a ridge that enters the basin through eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over northern Central America. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over parts of Costa Rica and Panama due to the presence of the monsoon trough. The upper-level trough currently over the central Gulf of Mexico will slide east through the end of the workweek, which will continue to advect deep tropical moisture over the NW Caribbean and parts of western Cuba, especially over the provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa on Thursday and Friday. This will increase the likelihood of rain over these areas. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave currently moving across the island, along with the local effects could produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. Computer model shows some increase in moisture across Hispaniola by late Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. High pressure of 1023 mb located near 30N38W extends a ridge SW through the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba into the Caribbean Sea. This system dominates most of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front located just north of area W of 70W, and across northern Florida will sink slowly south tonight and Thursday reaching from 31N77W to northern Florida by Thursday evening. Fresh to strong SW winds, and scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected SE of the front. The remainder of the area will continue under the influence of the above mentioned ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR