000 AXNT20 KNHC 070552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 11N32W to 03N34W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly unfavorable wind shear, and Saharan dry air and dust is in its environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered showers from 03N-08N between 32W-37W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 13N41W to 05N41W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of 07N and is being affected by Saharan dry air intrusion to its environment. Abundant moisture associated with the ITCZ and middle level divergent flow support numerous heavy showers from 03N-07N between 38W-43W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 16N60W to inland Venezuela near 08N62W, moving west at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in an unfavorable wind shear environment, however shallow moisture shown in CIRA LPW support isolated showers and tstms across the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean waters E of 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 09N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N18W to 06N33W to 05N44W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered heavy showers and tstms are off the coast of Africa from 04N-11N E of 18W and from 03N-07N between 45W-53W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A sharp middle to upper level trough extending southward to a broad base over the Bay of Campeche supports a 1004 mb low centered near 29N87W with associated surface trough extending from northern Florida to the low then SW to 28N92W. Scattered showers and are occurring within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. Farther east, across the SE Gulf and Florida peninsula, scattered to numerous heavy showers and tstms are occurring from 24N-27N E of 85W being enhanced primarily by middle to upper level diffluence E of the upper level trough. The broad area of lower pressure is forecast to move slowly E-NE and into the SW North Atlc waters by Thursday. The lingering frontal trough is expected to extend across the Florida peninsula through late in the week bringing a high probability of convection across the SE Gulf and southern Florida peninsula with possible strong storms and heavy rainfall. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level ridge and associated NE flow aloft continues to provide overall dry conditions and clear skies across much of the western Caribbean. Diffluence aloft between this ridge and the upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico supports scattered to isolated showers over western Cuba and adjacent waters, the Yucatan Peninsula coastal waters and the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, over the eastern Caribbean another upper level ridge is anchored over the tropical Atlc. Primarily S-SW flow aloft prevails E of 70W. This diffluent environment along with the presence of a tropical wave along 62W is providing focus for scattered to isolated showers and tstms over the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean waters E of 67W. The wave is forecast to move westward and increase cloudiness and the probability of convection across the ABC Islands and northern Venezuela through Wednesday. Fresh to strong trades are expected to persist across the central Caribbean as surface ridge axis remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region. This area of trades is expected to persist through Wednesday night and then diminish as the ridge to the N weakens and slides eastward. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies prevail this evening across the island as northerly flow aloft continues to provide a subsident environment for the region. A tropical wave is expected to move S of the island late Wednesday into Thursday and provide increased cloudiness and the potential of showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Southwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is providing numerous heavy shower, scattered tstms and gusty winds across the southern Florida peninsula and SW North Atlc waters N of 24N W of 75W. This activity lies within an area of maximum middle to upper level diffluence and is expected to persist into Wednesday as a surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico and upper level trough will be slow to move E-NE during the next couple of days. Otherwise, surface ridging extends from 1024 mb high centered in the central Atlc near 30N40W to the SE Bahamas providing overall fair conditions for much of the eastern and central Atlc. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos