000 AXNT20 KNHC 062339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 739 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 04N31W to 11N29W moving W 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 28W-34W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of 07N along the wave axis. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 04N41W to 12N39W moving W 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 38W-43W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of 08N along the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 38W-44W...remaining largely embedded within the ITCZ. Tropical wave extends from 07N63W to 16N59W moving W 10-15 kt. The wave continues to stretch low to middle level energy to the NE across the central Atlc while maintaining broad 700 mb troughing S of 15N between 58W-65W. As the mid-level energy stretch occurs beneath upper level diffluent S-SW flow aloft...scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N-12N between 57W-67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 09N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N18W to 06N31W to 05N41W to 04N52W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 34W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low is centered over the lower Mississippi River valley this evening with troughing extending southward over the western Gulf to a broad base near 19N94W. This upper-level feature itself supports a 1005 mb low centered near 30N89W and a surface trough extending S to 26N90W then SW to 24N95W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of the surface trough and N of 28N between 88W-95W...including inland portions of the SE CONUS. Farther east...across the SE Gulf and Florida peninsula...scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring generally E of a line from the Florida Big Bend region S-SW to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This activity is continuing to be enhanced primarily by middle to upper level diffluence E of the upper level troughing. The broad area of lower pressure is forecast to move slowly E-NE and into the SW North Atlc waters by Thursday. The lingering frontal trough is expected to extend across the Florida peninsula through late in the week bringing a high probability of convection across the SE Gulf and southern Florida peninsula with possible strong storms and heavy rainfall. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge and associated NE flow aloft continues to provide overall dry conditions and clear skies across much of the western Caribbean this evening. As an upper level low is centered over the lower Mississippi River valley...upper level diffluence is maximized over the Yucatan Peninsula...Channel...and western Cuba providing scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms N of 18N W of 84W. Similar convection is occurring farther S across interior portions of Central America this evening. Otherwise... over the eastern Caribbean another upper level ridge is anchored over the tropical Atlc near 09N48W. Primarily S-SW flow aloft prevails E of 70W. This diffluent environment along with the presence of a tropical wave along 62W is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms across the far SE Caribbean S of 12N E of 67W. The wave is forecast to move westward and increase cloudiness and the probability of convection across the ABC Islands and northern Venezuela through Wednesday. Finally...fresh to strong trades are expected to persist across the central Caribbean as surface ridge axis remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region. This area of trades is expected to persist through Wednesday night and then diminish as the ridge to the N weakens and slides eastward. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies prevail this evening across the island as northerly flow aloft continues to provide a subsident environment for the region. A tropical wave is expected to move S of the island late Wednesday into Thursday and provide increased cloudiness. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Southwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper level low centered over the lower Mississippi River valley this evening is providing numerous showers and scattered tstms across the Florida peninsula and SW North Atlc waters N of 25N W of 70W. This activity lies within an area of maximum middle to upper level diffluence and is expected to persist into Wednesday as the surface low and upper level trough will be slow to move E-NE during the next couple of days. Otherwise...surface ridging extends from 1026 mb high centered in the central Atlc near 31N37W to the SE Bahamas near 23N75W providing overall fair conditions for much of the eastern and central Atlc. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN