000 AXNT20 KNHC 061017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc with axis extending from 09N25W to 03N26W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. There is a middle level inverted trough associated with this wave near 25W. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of 08N. However, moderate low to middle level moisture and upper level divergence support scattered showers from 05N to 08N between 23W and 29W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 12N34W to 03N35W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of 07N and being affected by Saharan dry air intrusion to its environment. No convection is associated with this wave at the moment. A tropical wave is SE of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 16N57W to inland Guyana near 05N58W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Even that the wave is in an unfavorable wind shear environment, abundant moisture shown in CIRA LPW and upper level diffluence support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms S of 11N between 51W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 05N34W...then resumes west of a tropical wave near 04N37W and continues west to the N South America coast near 05N52W. Scattered showers are off the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia from 04N-09N E of 16W. Scattered showers are also within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface low pressure dominates across the Gulf waters with moderate to fresh southerly flow east of 90W advecting abundant moisture from the west Caribbean Sea. This abundant moisture along with divergent flow aloft between a middle to upper level trough over the central Gulf and a ridge over Central America and Western Caribbean support scattered heavy showers, tstms and gusty winds in the SE Gulf from 25N-28N E of 87W. Isolated showers are observed over adjacent waters of the Florida Big Bend as well as the Yucatan channel. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are also observed in Doppler radar data off the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama N of 28N. This area of showers is to the NE of a 1005 mb center of low pressure over the Gulf NW waters near 29N92W with associated trough extending from the low to 24N95W. This low is forecast to move to Alabama and the Florida Panhandle adjacent waters by late tonight. Showers across the eastern Gulf are forecast to continue through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant moisture in the NW Caribbean and a diffluent environment aloft support isolated showers across the Yucatan Channel and west of 84W. A tropical wave SE of the Lesser Antilles along with moisture being advected from the tropical Atlc and S America by upper level southerly flow support cloudiness and isolated showers in the SE basin east of 70W. Except for isolated showers and tstms off the coast of Panama S of 12N between 77W-80W associated in part with the monsoon trough, the remainder basin is under fair weather conditions. Otherwise, scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades S of 16N between 65W-78W and mainly moderate trades elsewhere. The tropical wave in the west Atlc will cross the Windward Islands today with potential showers for the eastern Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... A middle level ridge, dry air subsidence from aloft as well as strong wind shear across the Island support stable conditions and fair weather. Model guidance indicate fair weather conditions will prevail today, however the passage of a tropical wave across the central Caribbean late Wednesday and Thursaday will support the development of showers across the Island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the waves section above for details. Diffluent flow aloft prevails in the SW N Atlantic embedded in an upper level ridge that covers the region W of 70W. This wind environment aloft along with abundant moisture in the region being advected from the west Caribbean support scattered heavy showers, tstms and gusty winds N of 24N W of 74W, including the northern and central Bahamas. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 32N56W, and a 1025 mb high near 35N26W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos