000 AXNT20 KNHC 051703 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 06N28W to 14N27W moving W 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 25W-33W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity S of 08N between 26W-32W. Scattered moderate convection occurring from 03N-09N between 23W- 28W. Tropical wave extends from 06N57W to 13N55W moving W 10-15 kt. This weak has become more convectively active during the past 24 hours as it moves beneath the western periphery of an upper level anticyclone centered near 10N43W. This is providing for enhanced upper level diffluence and scattered moderate convection from 06N-12N between 52W-63W...influencing Trinidad and Tobago...and also the southern Windward Islands. Tropical wave extends from 10N80W to 16N79W moving W 10-15 kt. The wave is moving beneath an area of generally dry northerly flow aloft...and remains within the southwestern periphery of an mid-level ridge anchored N of Hispaniola near 22N73W. Given the current upper level dynamics...scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is confined from 07N-11N between 75W-79W. This complex of strong convection is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Panama and the Panama Canal region through early Tuesday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 05N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N26W to 04N38W to 05N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 03N- 06N between the Prime Meridian and 08W...and from 03N-10N between 09W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low is centered over eastern Texas...western Louisiana...and a portion of the NW Gulf waters...with primarily west-southwesterly flow aloft prevailing over the Gulf this afternoon. This upper-level trough is supporting a broad area of weak lower pressure across the western Gulf focused on a pair of 1007 mb lows...one centered near 22N94W and the other off the coast of Texas near 29N94W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N between 92W-97W as middle to upper level dynamics continue to ultimately drive the stronger ongoing convection. In addition..mid-level shortwave energy is noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern Gulf providing overcast skies and widely scattered to scattered showers and tstms generally N of 23N E of 90W...including the Florida peninsula. These two lows are expected to merge by Tuesday...then skirt the northern Gulf waters and coastal plains early next week and move E-NE into the SW North Atlc by late Wednesday night. Otherwise...the remainder of the Gulf is under mostly moderate to fresh southerly winds as ridging remains anchored across the Florida peninsula and the SW North Atlc waters. Continued precipitation across the SE CONUS...Florida peninsula...and northern Gulf is expected through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge anchored over Central America and portions of southern Mexico is providing much of the western Caribbean with dry northerly flow aloft generally S of 20N W of 70W. Moisture and cloudiness continues N of 20N bringing scattered showers and isolated tstms to western Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters. With the dry air aloft...much of the convection associated with the Monsoon Rough axis along 09N/10N stretching from northern Colombia to Costa Rica is occurring S of 11N across eastern Panama. Farther east...an upper level trough axis extends from NE of Puerto Rico near 21N61W to a base near 14N69W. E of the trough axis...moist southwesterly flow is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms S of 14N E of 68W...including the Windward Islands...and Trinidad and Tobago. The presence of a tropical wave along 57W will move W and continue to provide focus for convective precipitation across portions of Venezuela and the Windward Island during the next 24-36 hours. Otherwise...fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean as high pressure remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region. This area of trades is expected to persist through Wednesday and then diminish as the ridge to the N weakens and slides eastward. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies prevail this afternoon across the island as NW flow continues to influence the region. A few isolated afternoon and early evening showers may occur due to peak daytime heating and instability...only to weaken by late evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Atlc waters while upper level ridging prevails over the SW North Atlc waters. Plenty of moisture and cloudiness with embedded scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered tstms are occurring within the influence of the ridging aloft generally N of 24N W of 71W...including the Florida peninsula. This overall pattern is expected to persist across the SW North Atlc waters as an upper level trough approaches from the west...currently over the Southern Plains and NW Gulf of Mexico. Farther east...the upper level troughing supports a cold front extending from 32N50W to 31N53W then continuing as stationary to 29N60W. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from the front near 31N52W SW to 25N60W to 25N64W with isolated showers occurring within 150 nm E of the trough axis and cold front N of 31N. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively weak surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered E of Bermuda near 33N60W. Finally...the eastern Atlc is impacted by a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered S of the Azores near 35N30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN