000 AXNT20 KNHC 042334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 734 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 13N22W to 06N24W moving W 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery also shows a well defined moist area. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the monsoon trough. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the remainder of the wave axis. Tropical wave extends from 11N41W to 01N42W moving W 10-15 kt. This wave continues to be suppressed by a generally drier airmass aloft to the N of 07N. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the monsoon trough. Tropical wave extends from 18N73W to 09N74W moving W 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows moderate moisture associated with this wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over Hispaniola from 18N-20N between 69W-72W. The remainder of the wave axis is void of convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 05N31W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N31W to 04N41W, and continues W of a tropical wave from 04N43W to the South American coast near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the African coast from 03N- 09N between 10W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 18W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 04/2100 UTC, a 1005 mb low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 22N94W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche, and the Yucatan Peninsula from 17N-23N between 87W-91W. Further N, clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the NW Gulf of Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana, N of 27W between 91W-98W. In the upper levels, a ridge axis extends from N Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula with considerable upper level moisture and cloudiness being advected from the EPAC to the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is over the E Gulf, and Florida from 22N-29N between 80W-90W moving E. Expect precipitation to persist over the Gulf for another 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean, and Cuba. These showers are being enhanced by upper level diffluence E of the upper ridge axis. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over Hispaniola. See above. Furthermore, the monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, and the Windward Islands E of 64W mostly due to upper level diffluence. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Also of note in the upper levels, a patch of subsidence is over the central Caribbean between 72W- 82W suppressing convection. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over Hispaniola from 18N-20N between 69W-72W due to a tropical wave. Expect more showers and thunderstorms to advect over the island over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Clusters of widely scattered moderate convection are over the W Atlantic and the Bahamas N of 24N between 75W-80W mostly due to upper level diffluence. The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is also over the W Atlantic from 31N59W to 29N71W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A prefrontal trough extends from 30N57W to 26N62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-32N between 54W-58W. A large 1029 mb high is centered S of the Azores near 35N29W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from the high to 26N57W. Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Expect the convection over the W Atlantic to persist for the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa