000 AXNT20 KNHC 041740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 06N21W to 14N19W moving W 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 19W-25W and largely remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough with scattered moderate convection occurring from 03N-10N between 13W- 24W. Tropical wave extends from 04N41W to 12N40W moving W 10-15 kt. This weak wave continues to be suppressed by a generally drier airmass aloft to the N of 07N and as a result is limiting scattered moderate convection from 04N-07N between 39W-44W. Tropical wave extends from 09N73W to 18N71W moving W 10-15 kt. The wave is moving beneath an area of generally dry northerly flow aloft...and still remains within the southwestern periphery of an mid-level ridge anchored NE of the Puerto Rico near 21N62W. Given the current upper level dynamics...no significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 05N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N27W to 04N51W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 05W-11W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low is centered over the Southern Plains with primarily west-southwesterly flow aloft prevailing over the Gulf this afternoon. This upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers and tstms across inland portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana...with that line of activity extending offshore to near 28N96W. In addition..mid-level shortwave energy is noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern Gulf providing overcast skies and isolated to scattered showers and tstms generally W of 92W...including the Florida peninsula... Florida Straits...and approach to the Yucatan Channel. A leftover low-level circulation center is analyzed as a 1006 mb low centered in the SW Gulf waters near 22N93W. A burst of scattered showers and tstms continues E of the low from 20N-23N between 89W- 92W. The low is expected to dissipate by Monday. Otherwise...the remainder of the Gulf is under mostly moderate to fresh S-SE winds as ridging remains anchored across the NE Gulf and primarily across the SW North Atlc waters. An area of weak low pressure is forecast to skirt the northern Gulf waters and coastal plains early next week through Wednesday night. Continued precipitation across the SE CONUS...Florida peninsula...and northern Gulf is expected through the upcoming week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge anchored over Central America and southern Mexico is providing much of the western Caribbean with dry northerly flow aloft generally S of 19N W of 70W. Moisture and cloudiness continues N of 19N bringing scattered showers and isolated tstms to the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel...as well as isolated showers to Cuba. With the dry air aloft...much of the convection associated with the Monsoon Rough axis along 09N stretching from northern Colombia to Costa Rica is occurring across southern Panama and across the Eastern Pacific waters S of 08N. Farther east...an upper level trough axis extends from a shortwave noted on water vapor imagery near 23N54W SW to 17N63W to a base near 12N67W. Middle to upper level cloudiness is noted on visible satellite imagery across a portion of the Leeward Islands...however no significant deep convection is occurring. A few isolated showers are however occurring across the Windward Islands S of 14N. Otherwise...fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean as high pressure remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region. This area of trades is expected to persist through Wednesday and then diminish as the ridge to the N weakens and slides eastward. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies prevail this afternoon across the island as NW flow continues to influence the region. A few isolated afternoon and early evening showers may occur due to peak daytime heating and instability...only to weaken by late evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the western North Atlc supporting a cold front extending from 32N60W to 31N62W then continuing as stationary to 30N73W. While isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm either side of the stationary front...scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N between 54W-60W largely due to mid-level lifting dynamics and the cold front. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a weakened pressure pattern...with shortwave energy noted across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas supporting widely scattered showers and tstms from 22N-30N W of 74W...including much of the Florida peninsula. Finally farther east...a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered SE of the Azores near 36N25W influences much of the central and eastern Atlc with fair weather and mostly clear skies. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN