000 AXNT20 KNHC 031732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast over the AGADIR during the next 24 hours and the Outlook for the 24 hours that follow consists of the persistence of northeast near-gale in AGADIR and TARFAYA, with threat of locally gale winds. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 12N47W to 01N47W, moving west at 10 kt. Abundant moisture prevails in this wave's environment as noted in TPW imagery. Isolated showers are observed along the wave's axis. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 18N66W to 01N67W, moving west at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows moderate moisture associated with this wave. Scattered moderate to convection is observed east of the wave's axis affecting the Leeward and Windward Islands as well as their adjacent waters between 61W-67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 12N17W to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 04N43W. Besides the convection associated with the Caribbean tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 17W- 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb surface low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W. A surface trough extends from the low to 24N96W. Another surface trough extends from 30N93W to 23N96W. These features combined with a diffluent flow aloft are supporting cloudiness with scattered moderate convection across most of the basin mainly east of 93W, with strongest activity near the low pressure center. A surface trough was analyzed over the Florida peninsula from 28N83W to 29N81W. Scattered showers are observed over the peninsula south of the trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin. The diffluence aloft will move east during the next 24 hours shifting the rainfall potential wit the far east Gulf waters and Florida peninsula. The surface low will move slowly northeast with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the east Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. Aside of the convection related to this wave, scattered moderate convection prevails across Costa Rica and Panama as the monsoon trough extends along Central America. Gentle to moderate trades are noted in scatterometer data across most of the basin except within 90 nm north of Colombia, where locally fresh winds were depicted this morning. These conditions will pulse each night through the next few days. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection. Expect little change elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to advect over the area during the next 24 hours due to the approaching tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the west Atlantic from 25N-31N between 60W-80W mostly due to upper-level diffluence. A tropical wave is over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. A 1030 mb high is centered over the east Atlantic near 38N25W. This area of high pressure extends across the whole basin. Expect the convection over the west Atlantic to persist for the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA