000 AXNT20 KNHC 031124 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 724 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 04/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of N or NE near gale in AGADIR and TARFAYA, with threat of locally gale. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers from 10N southward between 40W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through the area of an upper level trough. It is not easy to distinguish between precipitation that just is related to the wave and precipitation that just is related to the current upper level trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N15W and 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N21W 06N27W 03N38W, to the Equator along 42W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 03N to land from 07N eastward. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 08N from 39W eastward, and from 05N to 10N between 50W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO...and from the NW CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. An upper level ridge extends from western Honduras, across NW Cuba, across the NW Bahamas, to 30N70W. One surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle into SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 26N95W. A second surface trough is along 85W/86W from 25N to the Apalachicola Florida area. A third surface trough is along 24N93W to the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 18N to 20N between 90W and 92W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are to the east of 95W in the Gulf of Mexico, and to the NW of the line that passes through 32N59W 25N70W 22N78W in the Atlantic Ocean. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KEMK, KEHC, KGBK, and KEIR. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... Texas: the sky conditions range from LIFR in Hebbronville, to MVFR in McAllen and Alice. IFR in Victoria. Spotty areas of MVFR from Bay City to Conroe. LOUISIANA: IFR from the NW corner of Lake Pontchartrain with drizzle, to Baton Rouge and Lafayette and New Iberia and Patterson. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR and MVFR, and rain from Natchez to McComb and Hattiesburg. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area. LIFR in Fort Rucker and Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR in the Pensacola metropolitan area. LIFR in Marianna. LIFR in Brooksville. light rain from Sarasota to the St. Petersburg metropolitan area. light rain in the Key West metropolitan area. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, and HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough extends from 25N64W to Puerto Rico, to 10N70W in NW Venezuela. A 65W/66W tropical wave also is moving through the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 26N between 56W and 74W, including at the easternmost tip of the Dominican Republic. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 03/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in Guadeloupe. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that N wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be extending from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that initial S wind flow for about 6 hours, will transition into cyclonic wind flow with a trough for another six hours. Anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. Multiple ridges, and/or anticyclonic circulation centers, will span the entire area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. An east-to-west oriented ridge will extend from the Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N11W to 23N23W to 10N34W. A stationary front is along 32N/33N between 23W and 34W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. The surface trough from six hours ago has dissipated. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N48W to 30N6054W 29N60W 26N70W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between Africa and 60W, and from 20N northward between 60W and 80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT