000 AXNT20 KNHC 030549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 04/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of N or NE gale in AGADIR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/46W from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers from 10N southward between 40W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 09N to 15N between 57W and 59W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers also cover the area that is from 10N to 20N between 59W and 65W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N16W and 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 05N35W 05N45W and 04N53W in French Guiana. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 09N from 47W eastward, and from 05N to 10N between 50W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO...and from the NW CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. An upper level ridge extends from western Honduras, across NW Cuba, across the NW Bahamas, to 30N70W. A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle into SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 26N95W. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line from 16N91W in western Guatemala to 25N91W in the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are to the east of 96W in the Gulf of Mexico, and to the NW of the line that passes through 32N60W 26N70W 23N80W in the Atlantic Ocean. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KGBK, KEIR, and KDLP. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... Texas: MVFR from the NAS Corpus Christi to Victoria and Port Lavaca. LOUISIANA: MVFR from New Iberia-to-the areas that are along the southern side of Lake Pontchartrain, southward and southeastward. Rain has ended for the moment in some parts. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from Gulfport to Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR from Mobile to Gulf Shores. Rain in the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA: light rain in parts of the Fort Myers metropolitan area. Panhandle and Big Bend from Cross City northwestward. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, and HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough extends from 25N64W to Puerto Rico, to 10N70W in NW Venezuela. A 63W/64W tropical wave also is moving through the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 26N between 56W and 73W, including at the easternmost tip of the Dominican Republic. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 03/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.68 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: rainshowers and lingering thunder. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that N wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be extending from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that initial S wind flow for about 6 hours, will transition into cyclonic wind flow with a trough for another six hours. Anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. Multiple ridges, and/or anticyclonic circulation centers, will span the entire area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. An east-to-west oriented ridge will extend from the Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N13W to 26N21W to 13N33W. A stationary front passes through 32N29W to 31N33W beyond 32N36W. continues from 32N36W beyond 33N39W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A surface trough remains from the cold front of 48 hours ago. The trough is along 28N59W to 25N68W. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N49W to 30N54W 29N60W 26N70W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between Africa and 57W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT