000 AXNT20 KNHC 030003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 12N43W to 00N44W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb with small patches of dry air as shown by CIRA TPW imagery. Convection near the wave axis is limited. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 20N60W to 02N61W, moving W at 15-20 kt. CIRA TPW imagery show a moist low level environment associated with this wave. 700 mb analysis shows a distinct trough axis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N-19N between 57W-63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa near 09N13W to 07N19W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 07N19W to 05N30W to 05N43W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave at 05N45W and continues to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Besides the convection associated with the Caribbean tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between 19W-35W. Another segment of the monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N74W to the coast of S Nicaragua near 12N84W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 02/2100 UTC, a 1007 mb low the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Beatriz, is centered over S Mexico near Vera Cruz at 18N95W. Another 1009 mb low has formed over the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N95W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are over the SW Gulf, the Yucatan Peninsula, and S Mexico, from 16N-23N between 89W-93W. In the upper levels, a ridge axis extends from N Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula with considerable upper level moisture and cloudiness being advected from the EPAC to the Gulf of Mexico. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the NE Gulf, and Florida from 25N-31N between 80W-90W. Localized urban flooding is possible over Florida. Expect this precipitation pattern to persist for the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The outer rainbands of post-tropical cyclone Beatriz are over the NW Caribbean. This precipitation is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence E of the upper ridge axis. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection. See above. Furthermore, the monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Also of note in the upper levels, a patch of subsidence is over the central Caribbean between 67W-80W suppressing convection. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W with convection. Expect little change elsewhere. HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers linger over Hispaniola. Expect more scattered showers and thunderstorms to advect over Hispaniola Saturday due to the approaching tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the W Atlantic from 25N-31N between 71W-80W mostly due to upper level diffluence. A tropical waves is over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N60W. A surface trough, the remnants of a stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 30N52W to 24N62W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough. Another surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N36W to 26N39W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough. Expect the convection over the W Atlantic to persist for the weekend. Also expect the surface troughs to dissipate over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa