000 AXNT20 KNHC 021106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence or threat of gale in AGADIR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong in the ITCZ from 06N to 10N between 40W and 50W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 120 nm on either side of the wave. A tropical wave is inland in Nicaragua, along 84W/85W from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 60 nm on either side of the line from the coast of Panama near 09N79W to northern Nicaragua near 14N85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 05N41W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 07N between 27W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 10W westward, not counting the precipitation that may be directly related to the tropical waves. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida Big Bend. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from western Honduras to 24N92W in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level diffluent wind flow is near the surface trough. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of the line from eastern Honduras to just off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are to the east of the line that runs from the coast of SE Louisiana near 29N90W to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. Precipitation has been in parts of this area for the last few days. The areal coverage has been expanding across more of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward during the last 24 hours or so. Numerous strong rainshowers are in the southern part of Mexico, between 95W and 99W, just to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. Tropical Depression Beatriz is inland. A weak surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to 27N90W, to the Mexico coast near 24N98W. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KMDJ. MVFR: KVQT, KGRY, and KEIR. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... Texas: MVFR-IFR from Laredo to Hebbronville, Falfurrias, and Kingsville. LIFR in Alice. LIFR in Victoria. MVFR in Port Lavaca. IFR in Palacios. MVFR/IFR in Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson. MVFR from Beaumont/Port Arthur to Jasper. LIFR from the IAH airport to Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR from Hammond southward and westward. MVFR in Slidell. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. IFR in Natchez. MVFR in McComb and Gulfport, and in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: light rain in the Panhandle and Big Bend from Cross City northwestward. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA and HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough is along 26N67W, extends from a 24N67W cyclonic circulation center, through the Mona Passage and across Puerto Rico, to 15N69W in the Caribbean Sea, to Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from NW Venezuela to 24N in the Atlantic Ocean between 56W and 73W. Widely scattered moderate to strong rainshowers in Colombia from 06N to 08N between 73W and 75W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 02/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.68 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.23 in Guadeloupe. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: VFR at all the stations that are around the country. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that N wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The N wind flow during day one and early into day two will be related to the trough. The northerly wind flow for the rest of day two will be related to a ridge that will be moving eastward, from Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow, with a cyclonic circulation center, will span the area during day one. Expect broad cyclonic wind, as parts of a ridge try to move into the westernmost sections of Hispaniola early in day two, followed by some NW wind flow, in order to complete most of the first half of day two. The second half of day two will consist of anticyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to 27N23W 20N30W, to 10N35W. A cold front passes through 33N30W to 32N36W. A stationary front continues from 32N36W beyond 33N39W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A surface trough remains from the cold front of 24 hours ago. The trough passes through 32N49W to 30N51W 25N60W and 24N62W. Rainshowers are possible from 24N northward between 46W and 80W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center has become cut off near 26N52W. It is surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence for a radius of 120 nm. This center is between the Madeira Archipelago-to-10N35W trough, and the trough that is passing through the Mona Passage. A surface ridge is along 33N23W to 28N40W to 24N54W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the west of the 32N49W-to-24N62W surface trough. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT