000 AXNT20 KNHC 020002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Meteo-France high seas forecast has a moderate gale over Casablanca, Agadir, and Tarfaya zones. Please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/ METAREA2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 12N36W to 01N38W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb with small patches of dry air as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 02N-10N between 30W-36W. A tropical wave is in the western Atlantic with axis extending from 12N53W to 01N56W, moving W at 15-20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show a very moist low level environment associated with this wave. 700 mb analysis shows a distinct trough axis. Widely scattered moderate convection from 02N-11N between 50W-57W. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending from 13N83W across Costa Rica to the EPAC waters near 03N83W, moving W at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is mainly in a moderate moist environment. 700 mb analysis shows a distinct trough axis, especially over the EPAC. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 10N14W and continues to 08N20W where the ITCZ begins and then extends to 06N36W. The ITCZ then resumes west of a tropical near 06N39W and continues to 06N53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-12N between 10W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The outer rainbands of T.S Beatriz, centered over the EPAC near 15.5N 96.8W at 01/2100Z, are over S Mexico and the Bay of Campeche S of 22N. Patches of scattered moderate convection are noted. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the Gulf of Mexico from 23N-30N between 83W-93W. 5-15 kt SE surface flow is over the E Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge axis extends from N Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula with considerable upper level moisture and cloudiness. Expect return flow to prevail across the E Gulf through Saturday. Expect a surface low to form over the Bay of Campeche Saturday, then move NW towards southern Texas Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The outer rainbands of T.S Beatriz are also over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are noted. A tropical wave is over the SW Caribbean and Costa Rica. See above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over Colombia and W Venezuela. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Cuba, and Haiti. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 75W. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean. Upper level moisture is over the NW Caribbean, the far SW Caribbean, and the Windward Islands. A Patch of subsidence is over the central Caribbean. Expect convection to advect over the Windward Islands over the next 24 hours with the approach of a tropical wave. Expect little change elsewhere. HISPANIOLA... Presently isolated moderate convection lingers over Haiti. Expect more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to form over Hispaniola Friday afternoon and evening during maximum heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic waters. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N62W. A surface trough, the remnants of a stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N50W to 24N62W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the trough. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N26W. Expect the surface trough to dissipate over the next 24 hours, and for surface ridging to prevail. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa