000 AXNT20 KNHC 010604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence or threat of NORTH near gale or gale in AGADIR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/38W from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in the ITCZ from 04N to 09N between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/52W from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 08N between 50W and 55W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/79W, from 12N southward, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is moving into the area of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 05N to the south of Panama, to 11N in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, between 78W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal border sections of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 07N24W. The ITCZ continues from 07N24W to 05N37W, 06N42W and 04N50W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 09N between 10W and 55W, not counting the precipitation that may be directly related to the tropical waves. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is along 86W/87W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the middle Texas coast southward. isolated moderate rainshowers in the Deep South of Texas, and around the Houston metropolitan area. A surface trough is in the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level diffluent wind flow is near the surface trough. Numerous strong rainshowers cover the areas from Honduras to Mexico, and in parts of the Gulf of Mexico, from 15N to 19N between 89W and 93W. Numerous strong rainshowers are in the southern part of Mexico, just to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. Tropical Depression TWO-E is just off the coast of Mexico, about 200 nm to the SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 29N84W in the NE corner of the area, to 28N90W, and to 22N95W. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: KVBS. IFR: KEHC and KIKT. MVFR: KGBK and KSPR. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... Texas: MVFR and isolated rain in the Deep South, near Brownsville and Port Isabel. Rain, light and moderate, in the Houston metropolitan area. Earlier rain in the coastal plains has ended for the moment. LOUISIANA: Rain, heavy and light, in the Lake Charles metropolitan area. Lingering rain in Galliano. Earlier rain in the southern sections has ended for the moment. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Pascagoula. FLORIDA: lingering rain/drizzle in parts of the Panhandle. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA and HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough extends from a 23N67W cyclonic circulation center, across Hispaniola and the Mona Passage, to 15N69W in the Caribbean Sea, to Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from NW Venezuela to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 72W. Numerous strong rainshowers in Colombia from 07N to 09N between 73W and 75W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 01/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.01 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and a TRACE in Guadeloupe. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: rain and thunder. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will transition into northerly wind flow, with time, as the current trough moves eastward to Puerto Rico, during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a cyclonic circulation center is going to be close to the easternmost part of the Dominican Republic during the next 48 hours. Expect cyclonic wind flow immediately around the cyclonic center, and NE wind flow on the fringes to the west of the cyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of NE and E wind flow for the first half of the day, followed by cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with the influence of an east-to-west oriented ridge, from the Atlantic Ocean along 20N, to Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is along 30N21W, to 21N32W, and to 10N42W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A cold front passes through 32N52W to 28N54W and 26N60W. Rainshowers are possible from 23N northward between 45W and 61W. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 32N25W, through a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 30N39W, to 23N59W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the west of the 32N52W 26N60W cold front. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 29N68W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT