000 AXNT20 KNHC 312341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 741 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area of AGADIR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 12N36W to 02N36W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of moderate moisture and is under a middle to upper-level diffluent flow. Isolated showers are prevailing in the wave's environment between 33W-38W. A tropical wave is in the western Atlantic with axis extending from 12N49W to 03N50W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. TPW imagery shows a very moist environment within this wave, however, Saharan dry air and dust are limiting the convection to the southwest hindering deep convection at the time. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending from 12N73W to inland Colombia, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. There is no convection associated with this wave in the basin. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 07N21W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 06N35W then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N38W to 06N48W. Besides the convection associated with the waves, scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The outer rainbands of T.D. Two-E in the EPAC waters extend across the western Gulf supporting scattered moderate convection west of 90W, with a 1013 mb surface low centered near 22N97W. An elongated surface trough extends along the coast of Texas near 28N95W to the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 75 nm off the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and northern Florida to 87W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder basin supporting light to moderate southeast winds. Expect for the low in the southwest Gulf to drift over the Bay of Campeche through the next day or two and then move northward by Saturday. Return flow will prevail elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... The northern portion of two tropical waves are moving across Central America and the south-central Caribbean enhancing convection mostly over the land areas. Please refer to the section above for details. The only area with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the basin prevails over Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico, supported by an upper-level low that prevails centered north of the islands. This activity will diminish through Friday evening as the upper-level low shifts to the east. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the basin, as noted in scatterometer data. HISPANIOLA... A mid to upper-level low north of the island continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern portion of the island. This activity will diminish by Friday evening as the upper-level low shifts east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Showers and thunderstorms are over eastern Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico associated with a mid to upper-level low centered north of the islands. The remainder basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N67W and a second high of 1022 mb near 31N39W. A cold front is entering the west Atlantic north of 29N between 53W-60W, which will move to central Atlantic waters by Thursday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA