000 AXNT20 KNHC 310001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area of AGADIR. The outlook for the 24 hours that follow the forecast valid until 31/1200 UTC continues to depict north near-gale to gale winds at times. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 13N29W to 04N30W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air and dust are observed in the wave's environment, which inhibits deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture supports isolated showers along the wave's axis south of 05N. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 12N41W to 01N43W, moving west at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows a moderate moist environment east of the wave's axis that along with upper-level diffluence supports isolated showers south of 08N between 40W-42W. Saharan dry air is west of the wave axis inhibiting convection. A tropical wave is in the southeast Caribbean with axis extending from 13N65W to inland Venezuela near 01N66W, moving west at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows a moderate moist environment within this wave. Scattered moderate convection prevails within the portion of the wave that prevails over land. A tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean with axis extending from 16N77W to the EPAC near 04N77W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is present in the wave's environment south of 11N between 74W-79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 08N27W. The ITCZ begins near 07N33W to 07N40W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N45W to 06N57W. Besides the convection associated with the waves, scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough and east of 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb surface low pressure is centered near 28N95W and dominates the western half of the Gulf. a surface trough extends from the low to 29N89W. A diffluent flow aloft supports scattered moderate convection between 87W-91W. To the east, a 1021 mb surface high is centered near 30N85W. In the southwest portion of the basin, the latest scatterometer data shows a surface trough extending from 25N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N96W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail across the basin. The low and trough are forecast to dissipate by Wed morning, leaving return flow across the basin through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the southern portion of the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. The proximity of the monsoon trough that extends along 10N and the tropical wave. The remainder of the basin enjoys fair weather being influenced by an upper- level ridge that promotes dry air subsidence from aloft. There is an upper- level low north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico that is keeping a diffluent flow across the islands. With this, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across central Hispaniola and the western half of Puerto Rico, as well as the Mona Passage. A similar weather pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours. HISPANIOLA... An upper-level low north of Hispaniola and westerly flow south of the island support diffluence aloft, which supports scattered showers and thunderstorms across the island. This shower activity is forecast to continue through Wednesday evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. The remainder basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1025 mb high south of the Azores Islands near 33N27W and a 1023 mb one near 28N43W. A cold front is forecast to enter the northeast corner of the west Atlantic by Wednesday morning then will move to central Atlantic by Thursday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA