000 AXNT20 KNHC 290541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical is off the W coast of Africa with axis extending from 15N17W to 04N17W, moving W at 10 kt. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave reflection. Although the wave is in a favorable wind shear environment, the CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture with large patches of dry air, which in part hinders convection at this time. A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 09N31W to 00N32W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ with dry air in the Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave reflection. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 15N53W to 05N54W, moving W at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ, with dry air in the Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave reflection. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis extending from 19N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 15 kt. Saharan dry air is present in the wave's environment inhibiting convection. There is a very pronounced 700 mb wave reflection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 04N19W to 04N30W...then resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N33W and continues to 06N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 25W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low is centered over central Texas near 31N97W with an associated cold front. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection over central and south Texas, and Louisiana. Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is also over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 27N-30N between 93W-95W. One to three NM visibility with fog is also being reported over portions of the NW Gulf. Elsewhere, a 1017 mb high is located over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N84W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE Gulf. 10-20 kt SE surface winds are over the W Gulf. Scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico S of 21N. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Upper level moisture is over most of the Gulf, except over S Florida and the SE Gulf where strong subsidence is noted. Expect the cold front to reach the Texas coast today, 29/1200 UTC, with more showers and convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. The monsoon trough extends over Costa Rica and Panama producing scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Further N, scattered showers are inland over, Honduras,and Guatemala. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to 17N91W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean with strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W with showers. Also expect continued convection over the SW Caribbean, and Central America. HISPANIOLA... Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the Island, hindering convection. However, patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will produce isolated showers over the next 24 hours. The tropical wave will influence the island on Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N45W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic just E of the Canary Islands with scattered showers. Three tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Saharan dry and dust is noted across much of the Atlantic Ocean N of 10N and E of 50W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is centered N of the Leeward Islands producing upper level diffluence with scattered showers from 20N-24N between 55W-65W. Expect over the next 24 hours for more showers to be over the Atlantic in the vicinity of the Leeward and Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa